346
FXUS61 KILN 100656
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
156 AM EST WED DEC 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY BRINGING WITH IT A TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS, GUSTY WINDS, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ARE BOTH EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
THE REGION. VERY COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN BRINGING NEAR OR BELOW ZERO
WIND CHILL VALUES BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
LIGHT RAIN, MIXED AT A FEW LOCATIONS WITH LIGHT SNOW, IS MOVING
ACROSS LOCATIONS GENERALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 THIS
MORNING. STARTING TO SEE WIND GUSTS INCREASE WITH SOME WIND GUSTS
ALREADY OVER 30 MPH. THIS WAA IS BRINGING IN A RISE IN TEMPERATURES.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND BE GUSTY AROUND 35 TO 45 MPH
LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION WINDS IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
A LARGER AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAYTIME MORNING HOURS TODAY. WHILE
THIS WILL BE PRIMARILY RAIN, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH
SOME OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL START
TO SEE TEMPERATURES DROP AND ALSO A TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF. THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE DUE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ALSO WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT. SLICK SPOTS WILL
BE A CONCERN GOING INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
TEMPERATURES AND PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP. ALREADY
HAVE MENTION IN THE HWO AND WILL ALSO ADD MENTION TO THE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT THAT IS IN PLACE FOR THE WINDS TODAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 20S TONIGHT AND
THEN ON THURSDAY ONLY EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE PROGRESSION OF A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. IN GENERAL, THE HIGHEST
CORRIDOR OF QPF DOES GENERALLY REMAIN TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN HALF OUR
CWA WITH THIS SYSTEM, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY NUMEROUS ENSEMBLES. THE
GFS IS ONE MODEL HOWEVER THAT IS SHIFTING THE BEST AXIS OF SNOWFALL
DOWN INTO NORTHERN KY, WHEREAS THE EURO IS MORE IN THE TRISTATE AND
SOUTHERN OH REGION. EITHER WAY, THIS GENERAL AREA APPEARS TO BE
WHERE THE BIGGEST IMPACTS MIGHT BE EXPECTED WITH THIS PARTICULAR
SYSTEM. NBM PROBABILITIES OF SNOWFALL >2" SUPPORT THIS GIVEN THE
HIGH LIKELIHOOD (60-70% CHANCE) OF OCCURRENCE. SLRS WILL BE CLOSER
TO 10:1 IN THESE COUNTIES NEAR THE OH RIVER, BUT HIGHER SLRS
TRENDING TOWARDS 15:1 UP NEAR I-70 WILL STILL SUPPORT DECENT SNOW
AMOUNTS IN SPOTS EVEN WITH THE LIGHTER QPF. EVEN UP NEAR I-70,
PROBABILITIES OF 2"+ OF SNOWFALL REMAIN NEAR 60% FROM THE NBM (WHICH
IS USING A 10:1 SLR). THUS, PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WEST-CENTRAL OH
MAY STILL OBSERVE APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL. EXPECT SOME IMPACTS TO THE
FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE, PERHAPS LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.
BULK OF THE SNOWFALL WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THIS SYSTEM. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FUNNEL INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THESE BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES.
THE NEXT FEATURE TO MONITOR FOR SATURDAY WILL BE A CLIPPER SYSTEM
THAT MAY BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO OUR CWA. WHILE STILL
A BIT EARLY TO ASSESS POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS, MODELS ARE TRENDING
TOWARDS A FAIRLY SIMILAR STORM TRACK AS THE LATE THURS/FRIDAY
SYSTEM, BUT PERHAPS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH. ONCE AGAIN, THE
HIGH SLRS ARE A CONCERN FOR SNOW AMOUNTS TO OVERACHIEVE. TIMING WITH
THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY APPEARS TO BE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE OTHER IMPORTANT MESSAGE FOR THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THOSE COLD
TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH ZERO DEGREES
NEAR/NORTH OF I-70 SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WIND CHILLS WILL DROP
EVEN MORE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS, WITH MOST OF OUR CWA
EXPERIENCING WIND CHILLS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO DEGREES.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WIND GUSTS HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE AGAIN. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS,
SOMETIMES IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS, THROUGH A LOT OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE WILL BE SOME WIND SHIFTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS WELL. WIND
GUSTS WILL START TO SUBSIDE AT THE END OF THE LONGER KCVG TAF.
WHILE THERE WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT TIMES, GENERALLY EXPECT
RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES WITH A TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. CIGS
WILL ALSO LOWER AND BECOME MVFR TO IFR.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURS NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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