533
FXUS61 KILN 181127
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
627 AM EST THU DEC 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF HEADING INTO
TONIGHT BUT A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE ARES BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS
TODAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. AS IT DOES, AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR AREA
FROM THE WEST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS, A 50-70 KNOT
850 MB JET WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT UP INTO OUR AREA
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WILL COMBINE WITH THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO PRODUCE 20-30 MPH WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE
35 TO 45 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR AREA, CLOSER TO THE SURFACE
LOW AND WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE MAXIMIZED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
IN THE WAA PATTERN, TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 50S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS THE INITIAL COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. IN DEVELOPING CAA
BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF THROUGH THE
NIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONGER SHOT OF CAA
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SECONDARY FRONT AND THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN
UPTICK IN WIND GUSTS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS
THERMAL PROFILES BEGIN TO COOL OFF, IT WILL BE TOUGH TO RULE OUT A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS, BUT BY THIS TIME, THE DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BE
LIMITED, SO DO NOT THINK IT WILL AMOUNT TO TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTHWEST
TO THE MID 20S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN CONTINUE
TO DROP OFF THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
BEGINNING TO REBOUND HEADING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ON FRIDAY EVENING, A DEEP CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CONUS, WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND
PSEUDO-ZONAL UPPER FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION.
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SWITCH TO THE SSW
BY SATURDAY, AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL BRING A SWITCH TO WARM ADVECTION FOR
SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. THERE WILL
BE A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF SW FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE, BUT A
STRONG INVERSION WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR WIND GUSTS. WITH THAT
SAID, THIS FORECAST WILL HIGHLIGHT SOME 20-30 MPH WIND GUSTS DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY, AND THERE MAY BE A ROOM FOR THIS TO INCREASE A
LITTLE BIT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY ON SUNDAY, WITH
WEAK FORCING AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. COULD NOT
TOTALLY DISCOUNT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING, BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE SUNDAY COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE EAST BY
MONDAY NIGHT, SWITCHING FLOW TO WARM ADVECTION ONCE AGAIN. THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY SPECIFICS FOR PRECIPITATION TIMING FOR TUESDAY
AND BEYOND, BUT THERE DOES LOOK TO BE SOME CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
NEXT WEEK, WITH WAVES IN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT INTERACTING WITH
MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW. WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE SOLIDLY ABOVE NORMAL, ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS
WOULD LIKELY BE RAIN.
AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING
EAST ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. LLWS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. A NARROW CONVECTIVE LINE
OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES EAST IN THE 00Z TO 03Z TIMEFRAME. SOME LOCALIZED GUSTS TO
AROUND 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE HEAVIER SHOWERS. WINDS
WILL ALSO SWING AROUND TO THE WEST AS THE FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING.
CIGS WILL LOWER INTO MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE, MVFR TO
LOCALLY IFR VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWERS.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED GUSTY WEST WINDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND LOCALIZED
MVFR TO IFR VSBYS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...JGL
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