278
FXUS61 KILN 192326
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
626 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT BRINGING CALM AND COLD CONDITIONS. WARMER TEMPERATURES
BRIEFLY RETURN FOR SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS
TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MILD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY SCATTER AND WINDS RELAX THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
INITIALLY DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO LOWER 20S DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, HIGH PRESSURE AXIS QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST WHICH
WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW TO START REDEVELOPING DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES STEADY.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/
WARMER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY THANKS TO INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WEST OF A HIGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION. WINDS MAY
BECOME A BIT BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE AREA IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST A LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA.
FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE 40S AREAWIDE. SOME LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER MAY MAKE GET ABOVE 50. A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS CAN BE
EXPECTED.
A DRY COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO THE LOW IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SINKS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
IS FORECAST. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FORECAST LOWS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
COLD AIR WILL ENTER BEHIND THE FRONT THAT PASSED OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
AS UPPER FLOW SHIFTS NW AND A SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE IN/OH BORDER
WITH MOST OF CWA REMAINING IN NW SFC FLOW THROUGH NIGHTFALL. SFC
HIGH MOVES E TOWARDS WRN PA BY DAYBREAK MON, BUT THE SHIFT TO SLY
FLOW IS LIGHT AND LATE, LEADING TO A NICE RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT
WITH LOWS 18-23. SSE FLOW MONDAY BRINGS SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS 40-45.
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLE TO THE WEST IN THE
LATE DAY MON, MORE LIKELY TO BEGIN IN THE EVENING. THIS IS AHEAD OF
A SFC FRONT BUT COINCIDENT WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF H8 RIDGE AND
STRONGER SW H8 WINDS TRANSPORTING A DECENT SHOT OF MOISTURE TO THE
REGION. WHILE PRECIP SHOULD BE ENDING BY DAYBREAK TUE, OVERNIGHT
WILL SEE LINGERING MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH H5 ENERGY CROSSING SW
CWA ON NW FLOW, AND A W-E SFC TROUGH REMNANT OF THE STRETCHED CDFNT,
LEADING TO ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN IN SRN 1/2 OF CWA TUE NIGHT.
THE SFC TROUGH LIFTS NWD TUE NIGHT AND FOCUSES MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ALONG IT WITH UPPER VORT MAXIMA MOVING SE AHEAD OF H5 BUILDING RIDGE
IN THE MIDWEST. MODELS SHOWING A BIT OF DIVERGENCE IN STRENGTH OF
VORTICITY AND SFC FRONTAL PLACEMENT AT THIS TIME, SO NBM SHOULD BE
THE BETTER FORECAST BEGINNING WED EVENING. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS
SIMPLY NOT THERE LOOKING AT 18Z THURS FROM GFS, NEITHER AT SFC OR H5
L/W PATTERNS.
TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE AFTER MON, TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 60S ON
THU, SETTLING IN THE 50S FRI. LOWS WILL JUMP 15-20 DEG MON NIGHT
FROM PREVIOUS NIGHT AND FOLLOW A SIMILAR RISE, MAXING OUT THU
NIGHT IN THE MID 40S-LOW 50S.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MVFR CIGS BARELY HANGING ON AT KCMH/KLCK, BUT SHOULD SHIFT EAST AFTER
THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WIND GUSTS
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING, SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING GIVEN EN ENHANCED
LLJ OVER THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW TO 10-15
KTS, WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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