535
FXUS61 KILN 201715
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1215 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL DRAPE A WEAK COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF IT WHICH WILL CROSS EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY, PASS
TO THE EAST, AND SETTLE OVER WV BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. LINGERING LIGHT
WIND AND CLEAR SKY COVER FROM THIS HIGH'S PASSAGE WILL SET UP A
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT, BRINGING COLD TEMPERATURES THAT DROP TO
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN TAKE PLACE
WITH READINGS 20-30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. SORRY, BUT A WHITE CHRISTMAS IS NOT IN THE CARDS THIS YEAR.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT, ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM WELL NW TO NORTH OF
THE OHIO VALLEY. IN THE DEVELOPING CAA BEHIND THE FRONT, LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 30 DEGREES
IN THE SOUTHEAST.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOL CONDITIONS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S. THE HIGH PASSES OVER THE REGION AS IT MOVES EAST
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WIND AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S IN A RADIATIONAL COOLING
SETUP. TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST SOUTH AND WEST OF METRO CINCINNATI, AND
COOLEST IN THE HOCKING HILLS WHERE SOME MID TEENS COULD BE FOUND.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
UPPER FLOW WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HEIGHTS WILL BE FAIRLY STAGNANT THROUGH TUESDAY, WHICH WILL PERMIT A
BUMP IN TEMPS DUE TO DAYTIME INSOLATION AND SLY SFC FLOW.
SLY FLOW MON WILL TURN SW OVERNIGHT AND POOL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO GET WRUNG OUT AS LIGHT RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. THIS LOOKS TO BE DUE TO A SFC LOW RUNNING E ALONG THE
CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER FROM MN TO LKSUPERIOR, WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING SE OF IT INTO THE NRN OHVLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MAKE A
RETURN APPEARANCE, BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TUE
NIGHT IN THE 30S.
THERE'S AN INDICATION OF A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER NRN CWA LATE
WED, WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS RIDING TO THE SE ALONG IT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT DUE TO ENERGY DIVING SE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THE
BEST PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS LIE E OF I-75 AND THEN NE OF A DAYTON-
CHILLICOTHE LINE. THAT IS OF COURSE, ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS.
THE WMFNT MOVES N AND A SFC LOW TRACKS TO THE NE AS IT DOES SO FOR
THU/FRI. OVERNIGHT AND ON FRI, SYNOPTIC FEATURES SIGNIFICANTLY
DIVERGE AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN RESULT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FCST.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL RESULT IN INCREASED TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY, WHEN LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW
DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF 50. TEMPS MODERATE EVER SO SLIGHTLY BEYOND
THIS DUE TO THE BLENDED FCST, BUT STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH SAT.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SW WIND WILL TURN WLY OVERNIGHT, DECREASING FROM 10-12KT FROM THIS
AFTERNOON TO A WLY 8-10KT IN THE EVENING, AND SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND MAINTAINING A NW 8-12KT THROUGH TOMORROW. THE LOW END
OF THESE SPEEDS WILL BE FOUND AT CVG/LUK TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HIGH
CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE LATE TODAY/EARLY THIS EVENING IN FAVOR OF
CLEAR SKIES.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...JGL
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