223
FXUS61 KILN 210543
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1243 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL LEAD TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AN INITIAL COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY MOVED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY
THIS MORNING WHILE A SECONDARY, MAIN COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS OUR
AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. IN THE DEVELOPING
LOW LEVEL CAA BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF THROUGH
THE MORNING AND THEN NOT REBOUND ALL THAT MUCH, WITH AFTERNOON
READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 20S, ALTHOUGH SOME TEENS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS
THAT ARE ABLE TO REMAIN DECOUPLED THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THIS WILL BE ACROSS OUR EAST, CLOSER TO THE SURFACE HIGH.
RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW. IN THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN, EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 40S/NEAR
50 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ON MONDAY EVENING, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF THE EAST
COAST, WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WILL
CONSIST OF GENERALLY WNW UPPER FLOW, WITH OCCASIONAL WAVES IN THE
FLOW BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FROM TIME TO TIME. GENERALLY
SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK,
PUNCTUATED BY A COUPLE OF BRIEF SHIFTS TO NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION, BEFORE WARMER AIR SURGES NORTH INTO THE AREA AGAIN. AS A
RESULT OF THIS PATTERN, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. AS OF NOW, THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. THIS WOULD COME IN A
LITTLE SHORT OF RECORD HIGHS FOR DEC 25, BUT THE MIN TEMPS FRIDAY
MORNING (DEC 26) COULD BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS.
THE FIRST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL
WAVES IN THE FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES THURSDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY
MORNING. WHILE THIS IS A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN, AS OF NOW, THERE ARE
NO SIGNALS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT, PROLONGED, OR HEAVY PRECIPITATION.
THUS, THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF ANY HAZARDOUS WEATHER OCCURRING.
AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THE MAIN EFFECT WILL JUST BE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...JGL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page