493
FXUS61 KILN 220539
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1239 AM EST MON DEC 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW TO SET UP ACROSS OUR AREA WITH LOW LEVEL
WAA DEVELOPING. AS A RESULT, EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS TODAY ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO NEAR 50 DEGREES IN THE FAR
SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO
TONIGHT AS A 40 TO 50 KNOT 850 MB JET SHIFTS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL
LEAD TO SOME CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION UP INTO THE MID OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE NIGHT. FORCING WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED SO
WHILE WE WILL SEE SOME AREAS OF SHOWERS DEVELOP HEADING INTO TONIGHT
AND THEN LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING, IT WILL BE A FAIRLY LIGHT QPF
EVENT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ON TUESDAY EVENING, A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE
ILN FORECAST AREA, WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN WAVES IN THE ACTIVE WNW FLOW ALOFT,
LEADING TO A MOSTLY DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS PERHAPS A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY.
AN ACTIVE AND GENERALLY WARM PATTERN WILL SET UP THROUGH THE REST OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THE BOUNDARY LAYER THETA-E GRADIENT
WILL OSCILLATE NORTHWARD AND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH A
QUICK PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND RIDGES PASSING EASTWARD
IN THE UPPER FLOW. ONE SUCH WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA AND EVEN SOME
THUNDER -- SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO EXIST PER MODEL
SOUNDINGS, THOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN QUITE STABLE AT
THIS POINT.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, AS A RESULT OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN
WARM TEMPERATURES, THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE
TIMING, PLACEMENT, AND DEPTH OF THE SURFACE LOW. THIS WILL HAVE AN
EVENTUAL IMPACT ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH, THE STRENGTH OF THE
WINDS (SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LOW), AND
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FOR NOW, IT IS
FAIR TO EXPECT SOME BREEZY, WET, AND WARM CONDITIONS NEAR THE END OF
THE WEEK. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, THE CURRENT FORECAST IS
EXPECTING LOWER 60S ON THURSDAY AND MID 60S ON FRIDAY. THESE VALUES
WOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF RECORD HIGHS.
AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN AN INCREASE IN MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. AS WE
HEAD INTO TONIGHT AND THE LOW LEVELS MOISTURE UP, CIGS WILL FALL INTO
MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CATEGORY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING. LLWS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY, WITH
IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY LINGERING
INTO FRIDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...JGL
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