098
FXUS61 KILN 231134
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
634 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAIN ARRIVES CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A 40-60 KNOT 850 MB JET CURRENTLY NOSING UP INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY
WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC MID LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS HELPING TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR AREA ATTM. AS THE DEEP
MOISTURE SHIFTS OFF TO OUR EAST THROUGH DAYBREAK, EXPECT THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF. HOWEVER, BY THEN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE
SATURATED SO WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE LINGER THROUGH THE REST
OF THE MORNING.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE TRYING TO HINT AT AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TRYING
TO WORK IN BEHIND THIS LATE TODAY, BUT THINK THIS MAY BE OVERDONE SO
WILL STILL HANG ON TO A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. IN THE LOW LEVEL WAA
PATTERN AHEAD OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECREASING CLOUD TREND. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL PUSH QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASING
CLOUD TREND THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL TREND A LITTLE COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID
40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DRIFTING EAST OF
THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH AN ACTIVE WNW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT REMAINING IN
PLACE. THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY
GENERALLY ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN,
AS SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. WITH A SMALL AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY, SOME
OF THIS COULD BE CONVECTIVE, THOUGH NO HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STABLE, UNDERNEATH AN
INVERSION. A SURFACE FRONT WILL THEN SETTLE NEAR THE SOUTHERN
SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY, WITH MUCH OF THE AREA ENDING
UP ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE THETA-E GRADIENT. AS A RESULT, THE
MAX TEMP FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS,
WITH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 50S -- NO LONGER EXPECTED TO THREATEN
ANY RECORDS.
AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY, A MORE
PRONOUNCED SURGE OF THETA-E IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE ILN CWA ON
FRIDAY AS WELL. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO THE 60S ON
FRIDAY. ANOTHER RENEWED PUSH OF WARM ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL
LIKELY MAKE IT THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ANY SPECIFICS, IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THERE WILL BE A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THAT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES
CONSIDERABLY FROM THIS ABOVE-NORMAL STRETCH.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AHEAD
OF THIS, SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING,
MAINLY AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. MEANWHILE, EXPECT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING INTO MVFR AS WE HEAD INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TO WORK INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES LIKELY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY LINGERING
THROUGH SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...JGL
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