442
FXUS61 KILN 232345
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
645 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. A SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING RAIN TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
SOME QUESTION WITH HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS START TO MOVE OUT OR
DISSIPATE. TYPICALLY THEY HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND SLOWED THE DECREASE IN CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. ONCE THEY DO
EXPECT SOME FOG. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FOG AND STRATUS COMBINATION.
THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE IN LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN
KENTUCKY.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
WAA WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL TAKE LONGER FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A WARM WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE BREAKING ON
SUNDAY. FOR THURSDAY, A STALLED FRONT IS LIKELY TO BE DRAPED ACROSS
THE AREA. LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-70 MAY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER
50S WHILE LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER MAY REACH 60. RAIN
CHANCES EXIST WITH THE FRONT IN THE AREA AND A POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.
THE AFOREMENTIONED STALLED FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF I-70 THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WHEN A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN
CHANCES EXIST ALONG THE FRONT WHEN IT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
SOME LOW END SHOWER CHANCES MAY PERSIST IN THE WARM SECTOR ON
FRIDAY. FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WARM
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON SATURDAY. FORECASTS HIGHS ONCE AGAIN REACH
INTO THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
ON SUNDAY, THE SYNOPTIC SETUP MAY CHANGE. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA DROPPING TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS SIGNIFICANTLY. WINDY CONDITIONS ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL
OF THE COLD AIR ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. RAIN WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ARE BEGINNING TO SCATTER AT ALL AREA TAF SITES
WITH A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS REMAINING. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
BRIEF MVFR RETURNING, BUT TRENDS INDICATE MORE SCATTERED CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORED IN THE NEAR TERM. HOWEVER, GIVEN THIS CLEARING, DID NOT
MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO VIS WHICH WERE PREVIOUSLY AT MVFR/IFR
RESTRICTIONS. VISIBILITY TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED INTO
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING
NORTHEASTERLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION.
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AFTER 00Z TOMORROW, BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ADDITIONAL CIG/VIS
RESTRICTIONS. THIS HAS BEEN MENTIONED IN THE 30-HOUR CVG TAF.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES LIKELY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY LINGERING
THROUGH SUNDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MCGINNIS
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