095
FXUS61 KILN 241120
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
620 AM EST WED DEC 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION. MILD CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS MOVES INTO
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING WITH SOME OF THE FOG
LOCALLY DENSE. SO FAR, THE FOG HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT TRANSITORY AND WITH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN ALOFT, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW PERSISTENT THE DENSE FOG WILL BE. HAVE COVERED IT WITH AN SPS FOR
NOW BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE
EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUED INCREASE
IN MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM THE MID 40S
NORTH THE MID 50S IN THE FAR SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, SOME WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING, WHILE AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SLOWLY
SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK LOW LEVEL
JET THAT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK
MOISTURE ADVECTION UP INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT, EXPECT LIGHT
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. SOME
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITIES WILL ALSO DEVELOP, SO SUPPOSE IT WILL BE
TOUGH TO RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ACROSS MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN
AREAS LATER TONIGHT.
WITH THE BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR AREA, WE WILL END UP WITH A DECENT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO NEAR 50 DEGREES IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. HIGHS ON CHRISTMAS DAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S FAR
NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ON THURSDAY EVENING, AN ACTIVE, PSEUDO-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BEFORE A PATTERN CHANGE OCCURS AND BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO
THE AREA FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
RAIN IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY, BEGINNING EARLY IN THE MORNING DUE TO
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF A SURGE OF THETA-E ALOFT, THEN ENDING
LATE IN THE DAY AFTER THE SHORTWAVE AXIS AND AND A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. BETWEEN WAVES, A DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY, BEFORE A STRONGER WAVE BRINGS ADDITIONAL RAIN ON SUNDAY
MORNING. THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD, ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER THETA-E
BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTING A BIT NORTH AND SOUTH, CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VERY WARM -- PARTICULARLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE ILN
FORECAST AREA, WHERE THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON REMAINING SOUTH
OF THE THETA-E GRADIENT. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS WITH THE
RAIN ON FRIDAY.
ON SUNDAY, THE UPPER PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY SIGNIFICANTLY, AS A
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LOW TRACK EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. RAIN
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IN THE VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL MARK A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER, BRINGING IN A MUCH
COLDER AIR MASS -- WITH A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH IT IS OUT ON DAY 5/6, AND CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS DISTANCE, WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO APPROACH HEADLINE CRITERIA.
BEYOND ANY POTENTIAL HAZARDS, IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MAX TEMPS MAY
FALL BY AS MUCH AS 30-35 DEGREES FROM THE DAYS BEFORE THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TO THE DAYS AFTER THE COLDER AIR MASS HAS ARRIVED.
AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AREAS OF FOG WILL RESULT IN IFR TO LOCALLY VLIFR VSBYS EARLY IN THE
TAF PERIOD BEFORE DISSIPATING THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY WITH MAINLY HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITIES MAY EVEN SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM LATER
TONIGHT.
MVFR CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND THEN TREND INTO IFR
THROUGH THE NIGHT. IFR TO VLIFR CIGS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR TO IFR VSBYS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ034-035-
042>044-051>053-060>062-070-071-077-078.
KY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ089>096.
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-
066-073>075-080.
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...JGL
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