229
FXUS61 KILN 241818
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
118 PM EST WED DEC 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION. MILD CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS MOVES INTO
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING WHILE A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
EFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF A 30 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BRING SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING.
THERMAL GRADIENT WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70
WHILE TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY MIDDAY, LEAVING CLOUDY
SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
HIGHS WILL BE RANGE FROM 45 ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH
OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
ANOTHER, SLIGHTLY STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES STARTING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
BOUT OF LIGHT RAIN TOWARD SUNRISE. LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES FOR LATE DECEMBER.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT A STALLED FRONT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT ON FRIDAY. A CHANCE FOR RAIN EXISTS WHEN THE FRONT PROGRESSES
NORTH DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. IF TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL
ENOUGH NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF COLUMBUS, SOME FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE DURING THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY MAY VARY GREATLY FROM THE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST. A SECOND PERIOD OF INCREASED RAIN CHANCES EXISTS ON FRIDAY
EVENING WHEN A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE LOW.
A STALLED BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ALONG WITH
DRY CONDITIONS.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A
STRONG LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. AN INTENSE SURGE OF WARMTH
AND MOISTURE ON SUNDAY BRINGS HIGHS INTO THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF A VERY
STRONG COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING BEHIND THE FRONT
BY MONDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. CONDITIONS REMAIN
COLD AND BREEZY INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION, SO
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DROP QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAIN UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TAFS IS HOW LOW THE CLOUD BASES AND VISIBILITY BECOME TOWARD
MORNING, AND ALSO TIMING OUT SOME IMPROVEMENT ACROSS DAY AND CMH
AREAS LATE IN THE PERIOD AS SURFACE RIDGING MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. HAVE SHIFTED LOWER BASED ON RECENT GUIDANCE.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CAMPBELL
AVIATION...
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