380
FXUS61 KILN 242333
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
633 PM EST WED DEC 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION. MILD CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS MOVES INTO
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
EVENING UPDATE...
ADDED MENTIONS OF FOG IN FOR THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON AT LEAST SOME AREAS OF FOG
BEHIND THE PERIOD OF SHOWERS FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING.
WHILE DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE, THE DURATION APPEARS LIMITED TO A
COUPLE OF HOURS AS NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE BEFORE ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. AT THIS TIME, THE
FAVORED LOCATIONS ARE ACROSS THE GREATER DAYTON METRO AND
MIAMI/WHITEWATER RIVER VALLEYS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (1:18 PM)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING WHILE A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
EFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF A 30 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BRING SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING.
THERMAL GRADIENT WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70
WHILE TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY MIDDAY, LEAVING CLOUDY
SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
HIGHS WILL BE RANGE FROM 45 ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH
OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
ANOTHER, SLIGHTLY STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES STARTING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
BOUT OF LIGHT RAIN TOWARD SUNRISE. LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES FOR LATE DECEMBER.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT A STALLED FRONT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT ON FRIDAY. A CHANCE FOR RAIN EXISTS WHEN THE FRONT PROGRESSES
NORTH DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. IF TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL
ENOUGH NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF COLUMBUS, SOME FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE DURING THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY MAY VARY GREATLY FROM THE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST. A SECOND PERIOD OF INCREASED RAIN CHANCES EXISTS ON FRIDAY
EVENING WHEN A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE LOW.
A STALLED BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ALONG WITH
DRY CONDITIONS.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A
STRONG LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. AN INTENSE SURGE OF WARMTH
AND MOISTURE ON SUNDAY BRINGS HIGHS INTO THE 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF A VERY
STRONG COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING BEHIND THE FRONT
BY MONDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. CONDITIONS REMAIN
COLD AND BREEZY INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE NEXT FEW HOURS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE REGION, BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN AREA WIDE AVIATION RESTRICTIONS STARTING
BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z. REGIONAL RADAR IS MOSTLY DRY AT THIS TIME, AND
THIS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO CHANGE BY 02-03Z. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS THE COLUMBUS TAF SITES, BUT CHANCES ARE
LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP WORDING OUT OF TAF. SHOWERS OF RAIN WITH SOME
BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY WILL BE THE MAIN THEME WITH THE
SHOWERS TONIGHT.
IFR/LIFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VIS PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. LIFR VIS IS POSSIBLE FOR DAY/ILN, SO PROB30S WERE
USED TO COVER THIS TIME FRAME UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
NORTHERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE TUESDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW FAR SOUTHWEST THE
IMPROVING RESTRICTIONS OCCUR. FOR NOW, THE MORE OPTIMISTIC
CONDITIONS ARE DAY, CMH, AND LCK. ILN/CVG/LUK ARE THE LAST LOCATIONS
TO SEE THE WINDS SHIFT AND THE POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENTS.
THESE IMPROVEMENTS DO NOT LAST LONG AS THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES AFTER
00Z FRIDAY, BRINGING ADDITIONAL AVIATION RESTRICTIONS AREA WIDE.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...MCGINNIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CAMPBELL
AVIATION...MCGINNIS
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