347
FXUS61 KILN 250628
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
128 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING, STALL, AND THEN
LIFT BACK NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES CHANGING FROM MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST BEFORE DAYBREAK. A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
AND NORTHERN OHIO WILL DROP SOUTH THIS MORNING, CLEARING THE FORECAST
AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT PASSES.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT FOG IN WESTERN INDIANA MAY SPREAD EAST
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. CANNOT SAY THAT THERE IS THE GREATEST
CONFIDENCE IN THIS, EVEN WITH HREF PROBABILITIES OF VISIBILITY 1
MILE OR LESS RANGING FROM 50 TO 80 PERCENT ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. BUT IF THIS DOES OCCUR, IT COULD BE A LESS USUAL
CASE OF VISIBILITY DROPPING AFTER DAYBREAK. ANY VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED, MAYBE A FEW HOURS, AS THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS
WITH THE FRONT WILL CAUSE FOG TO QUICKLY DIMINISH. SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
AREA.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
THE FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY WILL HAVE STALLED JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SO IT WILL NOT TAKE
MUCH FOR IT TO LIFT BACK NORTH IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE. THE FRONT WILL RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
WITH SOME RAIN DEVELOPING NEAR IT WITH OVERRUNNING. ONE THING TO
WATCH WILL BE TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL OHIO AS ANY PRECIPITATION MOVES
IN. GUIDANCE HAS A TENDENCY TO WARM A BIT TOO QUICKLY IN THESE
SITUATIONS. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT
FREEZING OR SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES COULD STILL BE LINGERING TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE COLUMBUS METRO AS LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MOVES IN. AT THIS POINT, THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY (LESS THAN 20
PERCENT) OF IMPACTS, AND EVEN IF ANY FREEZING RAIN WOULD OCCUR, IT
WOULD BE BRIEF EARLY FRIDAY MORNING,. HOWEVER, IT IS SOMETHING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON.
THE ENTIRE REGION WILL GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF
INDIANA AND OHIO DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
WITH MOST PLACES ONLY EXPECTING 0.10 INCH OR LESS, THE EXCEPTION
BEING WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OHIO WHERE RAIN COULD BE 0.1 TO 0.25
INCHES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ON FRIDAY EVENING, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION, WITH SOME MODEST HEIGHT RISES OCCURRING OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. ANY REMAINING RAIN WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO THE AREA -- ALONG WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF NORTHERLY FLOW AND LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER THETA-E.
THE MAIN STORY FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE WITH A
COMPLEX SYSTEM ON SUNDAY, LEADING TO MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEEK. BY SUNDAY MORNING, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE
AMPLIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH SOME SHOWERS (AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS) DEVELOPING IN AN ISENTROPIC LIFT SCENARIO. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS A MUCH LARGER WAVE APPROACHES
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY, ALONG WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF THETA-E INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY, AS A RESULT OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THEN, A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOME TIME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT, WITH A QUICK WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST ONCE IT
PASSES. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES COOL OFF, A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SNOW COULD OCCUR BEFORE DRIER AIR TAKES OVER ON MONDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO IS MEDIUM TO HIGH,
THOUGH SPECIFICS AND TIMING REMAIN IN QUESTION, AND THE EXACT TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON WHAT
ENDS UP OCCURRING.
THERE WILL BE SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR GUSTY WINDS DURING THIS
STRETCH OF TIME. FIRST WILL BE IN THE WARM ADVECTION (SOUTHWEST
FLOW) ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THEN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY
NIGHT, AND THEN WITH A SYNOPTIC PRESSURE GRADIENT (WESTERLY FLOW) ON
MONDAY. THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS,
THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE THAT GUSTS COULD GET UP TOWARD ADVISORY
CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE CHANGE IN AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE WORTH NOTING,
STARTING OFF WITH NEAR-RECORD VALUES IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL LEAD TO ABOUT A 25-DEGREE DROP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM
SUNDAY TO MONDAY, PER THE CURRENT FORECAST. COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED ONCE THE FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS. OTHERWISE, MVFR CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE COLUMBUS AREA, THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT CEILINGS,
AS WELL AS VISIBILITIES IN FOG, MAY DROP TO LIFR FOR A FEW HOURS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM ON
THIS OCCURRENCE, BUT IT WAS ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH DURING THE DAY, VISIBILITIES WILL QUICKLY
IMPROVE WITH CEILINGS SLOWER TO RESPOND. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD LIFT
TO MVFR AND THE LOWER CLOUDS MAY EVEN SCATTER OUT AT KCMH/KLCK, AND
POSSIBLY EVEN KDAY, LATE IN THE PERIOD.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER AND THEN BECOME NORTHEAST
AT 10 KT OR LESS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A BREAK SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY TO RETURN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...
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