879
FXUS61 KILN 260621
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
121 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING QUICKLY FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BECOME BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. LIGHT RAIN
WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THIS. IN ADDITION, FOG WILL OCCUR NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A TRANSIENT AREA OF VISIBILITY APPROACHING 1 MILE
IS LIKELY TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION.
IN THE WARM SECTOR, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO JUMP INTO THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S, EVEN WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER. SOME MINOR WIND
GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN BORDER WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. MORE RAIN WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH GREATER
COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL BE STUBBORN. THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT EVEN IF LOWER CLOUDS DECREASE,
THICKER HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALREADY BE SPREADING INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS BUT
STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD. VIGOROUS NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL PHASE WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AS THESE FEATURES MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
THERE IS BROAD AGREEMENT IN THAT THIS WILL DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, ALTHOUGH
HOW THIS COMES TOGETHER HAS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD.
AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST, IT WILL CAUSE A WARM FRONT
TO LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN ALONG THE BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL JET
WILL TRANSPORT A VERY MOIST AIRMASS INTO THE REGION (PRECIPITABLE
WATER GREATER THAN 90TH PERCENTILE COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY). MIXING
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED IN THE WARM SECTOR, BUT EVEN WITH CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH RECORD WARMTH.
CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT A MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS IN THE ENSEMBLE
ENVELOPE (65 PERCENT) BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING WITH MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS MOVING THROUGH LATER THAT NIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH RAINFALL OF 0.5 TO
1 INCH A GOOD POSSIBILITY.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER. EVEN AFTER THE
INITIAL DROP, READINGS WILL LIKELY ONLY BECOME NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY WITH
GOOD MIXING IN COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A
SHORT WAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD
CAUSE THE TAIL END OF A SECONDARY BOUNDARY TO BRUSH BY. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS, BUT THIS IS
UNLIKELY TO CAUSE ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. HOWEVER, FOR A FEW
HOURS RIGHT AROUND WHEN THE FRONT PASSES, VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO
AT LEAST IFR AND MOST PLACES WILL HAVE CEILINGS LOWER TO LIFR. THERE
IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT
THESE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE TRANSIENT.
AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KT.
ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS AFTER 21Z. WINDS WILL VEER AGAIN WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE, EVENTUALLY BECOMING NORTHWEST. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AT WHAT LEVEL. TAFS HAVE
BROUGHT CONDITIONS UP TO MVFR, BUT IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT IFR
COULD CONTINUE.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THERE
MAY BE A BREAK IN CEILINGS LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY TO RETURN SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. MVFR CEILINGS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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