145
FXUS61 KILN 261249
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
749 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING QUICKLY FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BECOME BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
MORNING UPDATE...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN INDIANA AND FAR
WESTERN OHIO AS A PERIOD OF DENSE FOG OCCURS FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS
MORNING. AS THE FRONT LIFTS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY IN THIS
AREA, BUT MAY ALSO WORSEN FARTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL OHIO. AN SPS HAS
BEEN ISSUED IN ADVANCE OF THE WORSENING CONDITIONS, AND A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY EXPANSION IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST THE ADVISORY AS NECESSARY THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING. LOWER VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (1:21 AM)...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SOME VERY
LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN OCCURRING AHEAD OF IT. IN ADDITION, FOG WILL
OCCUR NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS HAS MADE IT INTO SOUTHEAST
INDIANA AND WILL EXPAND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING. THE GOOD NEWS
IS THAT IT WILL BE TRANSIENT. HOWEVER, WITH A DENSE BAND MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THESE VERY LOW
VISIBILITIES WILL GET INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
IN THE WARM SECTOR, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO JUMP INTO THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S, EVEN WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER. SOME MINOR WIND
GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN BORDER WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. MORE RAIN WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH GREATER
COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL BE STUBBORN. THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT EVEN IF LOWER CLOUDS DECREASE,
THICKER HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALREADY BE SPREADING INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AS THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS BUT
STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD. VIGOROUS NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL PHASE WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AS THESE FEATURES MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
THERE IS BROAD AGREEMENT IN THAT THIS WILL DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, ALTHOUGH
HOW THIS COMES TOGETHER HAS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD.
AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST, IT WILL CAUSE A WARM FRONT
TO LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN ALONG THE BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL JET
WILL TRANSPORT A VERY MOIST AIRMASS INTO THE REGION (PRECIPITABLE
WATER GREATER THAN 90TH PERCENTILE COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY). MIXING
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED IN THE WARM SECTOR, BUT EVEN WITH CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH RECORD WARMTH.
CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT A MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS IN THE ENSEMBLE
ENVELOPE (65 PERCENT) BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING WITH MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS MOVING THROUGH LATER THAT NIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH RAINFALL OF 0.5 TO
1 INCH A GOOD POSSIBILITY.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IT WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER. EVEN AFTER THE
INITIAL DROP, READINGS WILL LIKELY ONLY BECOME NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY WITH
GOOD MIXING IN COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A
SHORT WAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD
CAUSE THE TAIL END OF A SECONDARY BOUNDARY TO BRUSH BY. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL.
AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
GENERALLY IFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. STILL
EXPECTING CEILINGS TO DROP TO LIFR WITH VISIBILITIES FALLING INTO IFR
FOR ABOUT A TWO TO THREE HOUR PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST AND GUST TO AROUND 20 KT. SOME LIGHT
RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION BOTH EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND ALSO
DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TERMINALS AFTER 21Z. WINDS WILL BECOME
WEST NORTHWEST AND SLOWLY DECREASE AS THEY CONTINUE TO COME AROUND TO
MORE NORTHERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. IT APPEARS THAT CEILINGS WILL LIFT
SLIGHTLY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WHICH SHOULD BRING CONDITIONS
UP TO MVFR. BUT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY HEADING LATER
INTO THE NIGHT. THERE ARE CONFLICTING SIGNALS WHETHER CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT, OR PERHAPS EVEN SCATTER IN SOME PLACES, OR WHETHER
THEY WILL REMAIN STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY BACK TO IFR.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THERE
MAY BE A BREAK IN CEILINGS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT MVFR TO
IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY TO RETURN SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. MVFR CEILINGS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ042-060-070.
KY...NONE.
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-
066.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MCGINNIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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