866
FXUS61 KILN 270626
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
126 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
READINGS SOARING TO NEAR RECORD WARMTH ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER, A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE EAST. BUT CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
STUBBORN, WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE VERY LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS BUT STILL SOLIDLY
ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST. A WARM FRONT WILL START TO LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT AND THEN
CONTINUE PASSING THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING.
SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA, WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL NORTH AND WEST OF I-71. IN THAT
SAME AREA, FOG MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT WITH PROBABILITIES OF
VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE OR LESS RANGING FROM 30 TO 60 PERCENT. A FEW
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN THE WARM SECTOR, PARTICULARLY HEADING
INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY. EVEN WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS,
THERE WILL BE VERY STRONG WARMING WITH RECORD HIGHS IN JEOPARDY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
RECORD HIGHS FOR 12/28:
CVG 67 IN 1984
CMH 68 IN 1984
DAY 64 IN 1984
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
NOTABLE JET STREAK ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BASE OF A DEVELOPING
CLOSED LOW WILL PROVIDE VIGOROUS FORCING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
TO HAVE A FINE LINE OF RELATIVELY ROBUST CONVECTION (MOST LIKELY
WITH NO LIGHTNING) ALONG THE FRONT. IF THIS OCCURS, THEN THIS LINE
COULD BRING STRONG, AND POTENTIALLY ISOLATED DAMAGING, WIND GUSTS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, THE INITIAL SHARP COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG MIXING AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. ANOTHER
SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE MORNING MAY BUMP WINDS UP A
LITTLE HIGHER. IF THIS IS REALIZED, THEN A WIND ADVISORY MIGHT BE
NEEDED FOR SOME AREAS NORTH OF I-70. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF WIND
ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS ARE IN THE 30 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE IN THAT AREA.
WINDS MAY BACK OFF JUST A BIT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY STEADY OR PERHAPS
EVEN SLOWLY FALL ON MONDAY. APPARENT TEMPERATURE WILL BE RANGING FROM
THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER 20S...A MARKED CHANGE FROM THE WARM
CONDITIONS OF THE PREVIOUS DAYS. FOR THE MOST PART, IT WILL BE DRY
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND EVEN INTO
PARTS OF CENTRAL OHIO NORTH OF COLUMBUS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE FETCH OFF THE SOUTHERN END OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
A SPRAWLING UPPER LOW MEANDERING OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL KEEP BROAD
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CONTINENT THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LOCK IN COLD CONDITIONS FOR A WHILE. FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST DAYS ARE 10 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL WITH
LOWS NOT BEING QUITE SO ANOMALOUS. THERE IS BROAD AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORT WAVE TRACKING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN
AMPLITUDE, ORIENTATION, AND SPEED. IN SPITE OF THIS, NOT SEEING
SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS AS FAR AS SENSIBLE
WEATHER, AT LEAST FOR THE RESOLUTION EXPECTED THAT FAR OUT IN TIME.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ACCOMPANIED BY
SOME SNOW SHOWERS. QPF IS LIGHT WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO AN INCH OR
LESS AT THIS STAGE.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA TO START. EXPECT THESE TO
DROP TO IFR BY 12Z, ALTHOUGH NOT BY MUCH. THE SIGNAL IS FOR CEILINGS
TO BE RIGHT AROUND 1000 FT WELL INTO THE DAY, SO THERE COULD BE SOME
WAVERING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR BEFORE THEY FINALLY LIFT
ENOUGH TO BE SOLIDLY MVFR. THERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS WHETHER CLOUDS
WILL BREAK HEADING TOWARDS 00Z. HAVE MOVED TAFS TO MORE OPTIMISTIC
SOLUTION, BUT WITH ONLY LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. IT IS ALMOST NEARLY
AS PROBABLE THAT MVFR CEILINGS COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS, VEERING FROM NORTH TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH MVFR CEILINGS PERSISTING INTO MONDAY. WIND
GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30 KT WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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