089
FXUS61 KILN 271138
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
638 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
READINGS SOARING TO NEAR RECORD WARMTH ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER, A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE EAST. BUT CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
STUBBORN, WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS BUT STILL SOLIDLY ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST. A WARM FRONT WILL START TO LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT AND THEN
CONTINUE PASSING THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING.
SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA, WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL NORTH AND WEST OF I-71. IN THAT
SAME AREA, FOG MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT WITH PROBABILITIES OF
VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE OR LESS RANGING FROM 30 TO 60 PERCENT. A FEW
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN THE WARM SECTOR, PARTICULARLY HEADING
INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY. EVEN WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS,
THERE WILL BE VERY STRONG WARMING WITH RECORD HIGHS IN JEOPARDY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
RECORD HIGHS FOR 12/28:
CVG 67 IN 1984
CMH 68 IN 1984
DAY 64 IN 1984
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
NOTABLE JET STREAK ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BASE OF A DEVELOPING
CLOSED LOW WILL PROVIDE VIGOROUS FORCING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
TO HAVE A FINE LINE OF RELATIVELY ROBUST CONVECTION (MOST LIKELY
WITH NO LIGHTNING) ALONG THE FRONT. IF THIS OCCURS, THEN THIS LINE
COULD BRING STRONG WIND GUSTS, POSSIBLY EVEN ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS
(LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE).
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, THE INITIAL SHARP COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG MIXING AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. ANOTHER
SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE MORNING MAY BUMP WINDS UP A
LITTLE HIGHER. IF THIS IS REALIZED, THEN A WIND ADVISORY MIGHT BE
NEEDED FOR SOME AREAS NORTH OF I-70. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF WIND
ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS ARE IN THE 30 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE IN THAT AREA.
WINDS MAY BACK OFF JUST A BIT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY STEADY OR PERHAPS
EVEN SLOWLY FALL ON MONDAY. APPARENT TEMPERATURE WILL BE RANGING FROM
THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER 20S...A MARKED CHANGE FROM THE WARM
CONDITIONS OF THE PREVIOUS DAYS. FOR THE MOST PART, IT WILL BE DRY
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND EVEN INTO
PARTS OF CENTRAL OHIO NORTH OF COLUMBUS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE FETCH OFF THE SOUTHERN END OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
A SPRAWLING UPPER LOW MEANDERING OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL KEEP BROAD
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CONTINENT THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LOCK IN COLD CONDITIONS FOR A WHILE. FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST DAYS ARE 10 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL WITH
LOWS NOT BEING QUITE SO ANOMALOUS. THERE IS BROAD AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORT WAVE TRACKING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN
AMPLITUDE, ORIENTATION, AND SPEED. IN SPITE OF THIS, NOT SEEING
SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS AS FAR AS SENSIBLE
WEATHER, AT LEAST FOR THE RESOLUTION EXPECTED THAT FAR OUT IN TIME.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ACCOMPANIED BY
SOME SNOW SHOWERS. QPF IS LIGHT WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO AN INCH OR
LESS AT THIS STAGE.
AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS TO START SHOULD LIFT TO ALL MVFR DURING
THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD. SOMEWHAT INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE
CINCINNATI TERMINALS WILL SCATTER HEADING TOWARDS 00Z WITH MVFR
CEILINGS REDEVELOPING THERE LATE. KILN TO KLCK/KCMH LOOK LIKE THEY
MAY BE ON THE EDGE OF ANY CLEARING, SO QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THAT REGARD. OPTED TO KEEP A PREVAILING CEILING BUT AS A BROKEN DECK
TO SIGNAL SOME POTENTIAL FOR IMPROVEMENT. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED AT
KDAY AS WELL, BUT IN THE DIRECTION OF NOT SEEING ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. IN FACT, MAY SEE CEILINGS THERE LOWER BACK TO IFR LATE. WINDS
WILL BE GRADUALLY VEERING THROUGH THE PERIOD AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10
KT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR SUNDAY
MORNING WITH MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY PERSISTING INTO MONDAY. WIND GUSTS
AT OR ABOVE 30 KT WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page