985
FXUS61 KILN 281453
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
953 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH STRONG, GUSTY WINDS OCCURRING IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE IN FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
MORNING UPDATE: HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BASED ON INTER-OFFICE COLLABORATION.
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP NEAR AND NORTH
OF I-70 IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS BOUNDARY, ALTHOUGH RECENT TRENDS
SUGGEST THAT MAY NOT BE AS MUCH AS EARLY ANTICIPATED.
AS A LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY, SOME
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR, MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN
COUNTIES. AT THIS POINT, ANY MEASURABLE ACTIVITY LOOKS SPOTTY.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO STRENGTHEN AND
BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON EVEN WITH ANY MIXING BEING LIMITED TO A
SHALLOW LAYER. IN SPITE OF ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES WILL
SOAR WITH NEAR RECORD READINGS EXPECTED IN WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE AREA.
RECORD HIGHS FOR 12/28:
CVG 67 IN 1984
CMH 68 IN 1984
DAY 64 IN 1984
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. WELL DEFINED LINE OF SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR ALONG IT. WHAT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OUT
TO THE WEST WILL BE DECREASING LATE IN THE DAY HEADING INTO THE
EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT RACES ACROSS INDIANA, WHICH WILL LEAVE
MEAGER INSTABILITY AT MOST IN WESTERN COUNTIES AND NONE FURTHER EAST.
CANNOT RULE OUT A BIT OF LIGHTNING WEST OF I-75, BUT THAT IS REALLY
NOT A CONCERN. STRONGLY FORCED SHOWERS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
DEVELOP STRONG WIND GUSTS AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT MORE
ROBUST CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. STILL
THINKING THE PROBABILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO WESTERN COUNTIES
WITH SHOWERS BECOMING NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE FURTHER EAST/LATER IN
THE NIGHT.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL START TO PLUMMET.
ALSO, IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION THERE WILL BE GOOD MIXING WHICH WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS. THE STRONGEST POST-FRONTAL GUSTS ARE FORECAST
TO BE DURING THE MORNING WHEN A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WIND GUSTS
GREATER THAN 45 MPH WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES, SO HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY. SOUTHERN AREAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
SEE WINDS QUITE AS STRONG, BUT GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY (60
TO 90 PERCENT CHANCE).
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FALLING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING AND
THEN BECOME NEARLY STEADY IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND CHILL ON MONDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR 20.
A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH A FETCH OFF THE SOUTHERN END OF LAKE
MICHIGAN COULD BRING SOME FLURRIES OR EVEN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM
WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL OHIO.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PREDOMINATE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
GUSTY WINDS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SHORT WAVE DROPPING OUT OF
MANITOBA DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE LONG WAVE AND ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES MID WEEK STILL HAS A FAIR BIT OF VARIABILITY IN STRENGTH AND
TO SOME DEGREE SPEED. ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS SEEMS FAIRLY EVENLY SPLIT
BETWEEN SHALLOWER AND DEEPER SOLUTIONS. THIS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER
SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES OR WHETHER IT AFFECTS THE ENTIRE AREA.
THIS IS AVERAGING OUT TO CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH
ADEQUATELY COVERS THE UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT IN TIME.
LONG WAVE FINALLY STARTS TO PIVOT NORTHEAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK
ALLOWING MID LEVEL FLOW TO BACK BY SATURDAY. THE AMOUNT OF BACKING
IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. THE MOST AMBITIOUS SOLUTIONS ALLOW SOME SHORT
WAVE ENERGY TO PUSH INTO THE REGION WHICH WOULD BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION, WHILE THOSE THAT ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE IN BACKING KEEP
THE REGION DRY. EITHER WAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO MODERATE.
AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CEILINGS WILL FALL A BIT THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. IN ADDITION, THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG. HOWEVER, TRENDS HAVE SUGGESTED THAT
THE DECREASE IN CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS DRAMATIC AS EARLIER
FORECAST. SO TAFS ARE NOT QUITE AS PESSIMISTIC DURING THE EARLY PART
OF THE PERIOD. BUT STILL EXPECTING SOME IFR CEILINGS, EXCEPT AT
KCVG/KLUK. ONCE CEILINGS LIFT BACK TO MVFR, EXPECT THOSE CONDITIONS
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTH
OR SOUTH SOUTHWEST TODAY AND STRENGTHEN, ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z WHEN
GUSTINESS WILL ALSO OCCUR. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 02Z AND 05Z. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG
GUSTS AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES, WINDS WILL
BECOME WESTERLY AND STRENGTHEN FURTHER FROM WHAT WAS OCCURRING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN WINDS WILL OCCUR TOWARDS 12Z
MONDAY.
OUTLOOK... MVFR CEILINGS AND WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 30 KT
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ026-
034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR INZ050-
058-059-066-073>075-080.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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