245
FXUS61 KILN 291143
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
643 AM EST MON DEC 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG WEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED
EAST THROUGH THE REGION LAST NIGHT. UNIFORM NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
WILL ALSO KEEP A CONTINUED SURGE OF COLD AIR INTO THE OHIO VALLEY,
KEEPING TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY STEADY THROUGH THIS MORNING AND ONLY
PERMITTING A SCANT RISE OF A FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER BUT
MUCH WEAKER COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION WED
NIGHT, AND COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, PARTICULARLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE SCIOTO VALLEY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
EFFICIENT MIXING IN CAA TODAY WILL BRING PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY. THE FOCUS FOR THE STRONGEST GUSTS (40-50 MPH)
APPEARS TO BE FROM 7AM TO 1PM, STRONGEST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR, WEAKER AT 25-25 MPH ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A
NARROW BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
WHILE TEMPS ARE SHOWING INDICATIONS OF A WEAK BUMP IN THE AFTERNOON,
THEY WILL ONLY INCREASE BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA,
MAYBE 7 DEGREES IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. IN EITHER CASE, STRONG WIND IS
NOT GOING TO MAKE THIS MEAGER RISE AT ALL NOTABLE TO THE GENERAL
PUBLIC.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/
ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOUND IN FAR NRN COUNTIES IN CWA WILL
WEAKEN IN THE LATE EVENING AND END TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL FROM
THESE SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. HOWEVER, IF
THE BANDS ARE WIDER OR HAVE A HEAVIER STREAK IN THE MIDDLE OF THEM,
HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE EXPECTED. HOWEVER MUCH THE WINDS
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT, WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE MAIN ITEM OF NOTE FOR THIS PERIOD IS A CHANCE OF SNOW WED NIGHT,
MAINLY OVER CENTRAL OHIO WHERE A HALF INCH IS A FAIR ESTIMATE FOR
RIGHT NOW. A FEW FLURRIES MAY BE FOUND ELSEWHERE, WITH A DUSTING TO
QUARTER INCH IN WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OHIO, AND MASON/LEWIS COUNTIES
IN KY. THIS IS OCCURRING AS WE GET SOME LOCAL EFFECTS FROM A WEAK S/W
TROUGH GLANCING NORTHEAST OHIO, AND MORESO DUE TO A WEAK SFC TROUGH
SKIMMING SSE IN THE EVENING. THESE AMOUNTS ARE NOT AN INSIGNIFICANT
DECREASE FROM EARLIER FORECAST. HIGHER SNOW-WATER RATIOS IN THIS COLD
OF AN AIRMASS WOULD PROBABLY INDICATE MORE THAN A HALF INCH OF
ACCUMULATION IN CENTRAL OHIO, BUT THE QUICKNESS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP DURATION AND COME CLOSER TO A MIDDLE GROUND OF AN
INCH OR A LITTLE MORE ALONG AND NE OF A LINE RUNNING NW-SE THROUGH
COLUMBUS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN COLD, WITH THE COOLEST
FOUND ON NEW YEARS DAY. READINGS HERE SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
MID 20S ALONG AND N OF I-70, NEAR 30 ALONG THE OHIO, AND SOME
READINGS NEAR FREEZING IN NORTHERN KY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE THE
COLDEST OF THE PERIOD, RANGING FROM THE LOW TEENS IN THE NORTH TO
NEAR 20 ALONG AND S OF THE OHIO.
GIVEN THE "COOLEST" PERIOD OF THU/THU NIGHT, THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WON'T BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER, ONLY A HANDFUL OF
DEGREES FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE 12Z FORECAST FROM THE 06Z FORECAST.
BUMPED WINDS UP JUST A BIT. DO NOT SEE THE SNOW SHOWERS OVER IL/NRN
IN REACHING ANY OF OUR TAF SITES BUT IF IT DOES, DAY WOULD BE THE
STATION, THOUGH CONDITIONS WOULD REMAIN VFR.
MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE FORECAST, THOUGH WEST WIND
20-25 AND 40KT GUSTS WILL BE NOTABLE. ALL THIS BEING SAID, CVG AND
LUK LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER ON BOTH SPEED AND GUSTS TODAY. GUSTS
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AT CVG/LUK BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK, WHERE
REMAINING TERMINALS KEEP GUSTS THROUGH THE 12Z TIME FRAME.
CIGS SHOULD RISE TO VFR FOR A BRIEF TIME IN THE LATE DAY/EARLY
EVENING, THEN DROP BACK TO MVFR BEFORE SCATTERING OUT BEFORE DAYBREAK
AT CVG AND LUK.
OUTLOOK... MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY AT CMH/LCK AND THEN ILN.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
073>075-080.
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...FRANKS
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