538
FXUS61 KILN 291754
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1254 PM EST MON DEC 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH TOWARD HUDSON BAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL PUSH QUICKLY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT PROVIDING
LIGHT SNOW. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
STRONG WESTERLY GRADIENT FLOW WILL WEAKEN A BIT TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS FURTHER FROM OUR CWA. THIS WILL ALLOW BANDED SNOW
SHOWERS THAT WILL BE STREAMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO A FEW OF OUR
PRONE CENTRAL OHIO COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY.
EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE... FROM A DUSTING
UP TO PERHAPS A COUPLE OF INCHES IN SPOTS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH WIND
CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A FAST-
MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE
DAY. WHILE THE GEFS REMAINS SCANT WITH SNOWFALL TUESDAY NIGHT, EPS
OFFERS A MEAN OF PERHAPS AN INCH ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. WE COULD SEE A FEW SLICK SPOTS BY THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE
IN THIS AREA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
INCREASED POPS AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WITH SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR SEVERAL DAYS MOVING
THROUGH DURING THIS TIME. ALSO AGAIN USED WPC QPF AND INCREASED
SNOW AMOUNTS FROM NBM. NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE SNOWFALL VALUES OF AROUND ONE TO TWO
INCHES. THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO
HAVE AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. WHILE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT OVERLY
HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM, GIVEN THE COLD AIR IN PLACE AND TIMING WITH
NEW YEARS EVE, CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT SLICK CONDITIONS IN THE HWO.
WITH THE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY TIME PERIOD, TOOK OUT NBM POPS AS
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THE SYSTEM SOUTH
OF THE REGION.
AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
18Z TAF UPDATE ONLY REQUIRED MINOR NUDGES TO CEILINGS AND TIMING THIS
EVENING AS MOST AREAS SHOULD KEEP CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 2,500 AND
3,500 FEET. SEE GENERAL LOWERING TREND LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS... BUT CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE 2,000
FEET.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES A BIT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME THIS OUT IN THE
LATER TAF PERIODS WITH SCATTERING OUT OF STRATOCUMULUS FIELD AT
CVG/LUK AND ILN.
OUTLOOK... MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
073>075-080.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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