100
FXUS61 KILN 300222
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
922 PM EST MON DEC 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH TOWARD HUDSON BAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL PUSH QUICKLY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT PROVIDING
LIGHT SNOW. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
WIDESPREAD FLURRIES WITH EMBEDDED BANDS OF PATCHY LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUE TO DRIFT THROUGH THE ILN FA THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE
CONCENTRATED AREAS OF STEADIER LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN FOCUSED IN SW OH
AND THE TRI- STATE INTO FAR SOUTHERN OH THUS FAR THIS EVENING,
EXPECT THAT THIS BAND WILL SLOWLY REFOCUS A BIT FURTHER TO THE N FROM
WC THROUGH CENTRAL OH AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT IS WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR
THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL LINGER THE LONGEST BEFORE IT SLOWLY WANES DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS FROM SW TO NE AS THE MOISTURE WITHIN THE DGZ
BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND THE LIFT SLOWLY DISSIPATES.
NEVERTHELESS, WHERE THE MOST PERSISTENT ACTIVITY LINGERS, MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR NEAR AN INCH LIKELY IN FAR NRN PARTS OF WC
AND CENTRAL OH WITHIN THE NW-TO-SE FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH WIND
CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A FAST-
MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE
DAY. WHILE THE GEFS REMAINS SCANT WITH SNOWFALL TUESDAY NIGHT, EPS
OFFERS A MEAN OF PERHAPS AN INCH ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. WE COULD SEE A FEW SLICK SPOTS BY THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE
IN THIS AREA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
INCREASED POPS AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WITH SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR SEVERAL DAYS MOVING
THROUGH DURING THIS TIME. ALSO AGAIN USED WPC QPF AND INCREASED
SNOW AMOUNTS FROM NBM. NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE SNOWFALL VALUES OF AROUND ONE TO TWO
INCHES. THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO
HAVE AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. WHILE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT OVERLY
HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM, GIVEN THE COLD AIR IN PLACE AND TIMING WITH
NEW YEARS EVE, CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT SLICK CONDITIONS IN THE HWO.
WITH THE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY TIME PERIOD, TOOK OUT NBM POPS AS
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THE SYSTEM SOUTH
OF THE REGION.
AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CIGS ARE BLANKETING THE REGION, WITH AN
EXPECTATION FOR THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE SCATTERING
OUT FROM SW TO NE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL VFR
CLOUDS WILL FILTER BACK IN FROM THE NW PAST 21Z, WITH VFR CIGS
EXPECTED AREA-WIDE BY 00Z ONCE AGAIN. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS
LIKELY BETWEEN 00Z-06Z WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR NE SITES OF
KCMH/KLCK.
THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST THROUGH 12Z IS GOING TO BE THE PERSISTENCE
OF SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES AND LIGHT SN, WHICH MAY LEAD TO BRIEF VSBY
REDUCTIONS, PARTICULARLY AT KCMH/KLCK WHERE THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE MOST WIDESPREAD. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY WANE THROUGH 12Z,
BUT WILL LIKELY PERSIST NEAR CENTRAL OH SITES THE LONGEST WITHIN A
MOISTURE FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
WNW WINDS AROUND 15-20KTS, WITH GUSTS TO 25-30KTS, WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HANDFUL OF HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING PAST 06Z
TO AROUND 12-15KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25KTS BY DAYBREAK. SOME OF THIS
GUSTINESS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAYTIME AS WELL BEFORE GOING MORE
OUT OF THE WSW BY 00Z.
OUTLOOK... MVFR CIGS AND VSBY IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY DUE TO LIGHT SNOW.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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