626
FXUS61 KILN 301745
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1245 PM EST TUE DEC 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING PERIODS OF SNOW TO
THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SCATTERED FLURRIES LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SLOWLY BACKS MORE TO
THE WEST. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. AHEAD OF
THIS, THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK A BIT MORE WITH SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT
WAVE TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SNOW OVERNIGHT, PRIMARILY FOR THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. WITH THE COLD AIRMASS IN
PLACE, SLRS WILL BE QUITE HIGH, ON THE ORDER OF 15:1 TO 18:1. WE WILL
ALSO GET INTO A COUPLE HOUR WINDOW WHERE THE BETTER UPWARD MOTION
WILL INTERSECT WITH THE DGZ LATER TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, EXPECT
FAIRLY EFFICIENT SNOWFALL, WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO. WITH THE SNOW MAINLY FALLING IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD,
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES ATTM AND HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBLE
TRAVEL IMPACTS IN AN SPS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ANOTHER, SOMEWHAT STRONGER, MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL PIVOT DOWN
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA LATE NEW
YEAR'S EVE AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR
NORTH LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN SOME WEAK WAA
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, SLRS WILL START
OFF A BIT LOWER, MORE IN THE 12:1 RANGE, BUT THEN THEY WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
AS WE GET INTO THE CAA BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL PICK UP WITH
GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE BETTER
SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH/EAST, SOME
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF LOWER
VISIBILITIES AND ENHANCED SNOW ACCUMULATION. IN GENERAL THOUGH,
EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES FOR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, TAPERING OFF TO LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST. IN AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE
MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE WINDS PICK UP.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ON THURSDAY MORNING, A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH OF THE ILN
CWA, SETTING THE STAGE FOR A DRY BUT COLD DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. AS IT LOOKS NOW, THURSDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S TO MID 30S.
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY
GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES, WITH ONLY VERY LOW CHANCES OF ANY
PRECIPITATION. THE ACTIVE MID-LEVEL WNW FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY FOCUSED TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE
PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND PERHAPS SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION (FLURRIES) COULD OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY, CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH
THAT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY NORTH OF THE AREA. AS A
RESULT, POPS ARE BEING KEPT DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BY TUESDAY,
MODEL UNCERTAINTY BECOMES HIGHER, BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAY
BEGIN TO INCREASE.
A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FROM
NORTH-TO-SOUTH THROUGH THE EXTENDED, WITH HIGHS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA
GENERALLY ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NORTHERN CWA. THIS
GRADIENT MAY OSCILLATE A BIT -- A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY FOR
WARMER TEMPS, A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH ON SATURDAY FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS. OVERALL, THOUGH, THE TREND IS FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM
UP A BIT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AWAY FROM
THE WEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS A BIT
MORE TO THE WEST. A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE
IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS HEAD INTO THIS EVENING. AREAS OF SNOW WILL
THEN DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, PRIMARILY ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. THIS WILL LEAD TO MVFR TO
LOCALLY IFR CIGS AND VSBYS FOR KCMH/KLCK IN THE 03Z TO 10Z TIME
FRAME ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. KDAY AND KILN WILL REMAIN ON THE EDGE OF THE BETTER
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM SO WILL COVER THE SNOW AT THOSE LOCATIONS WITH
A TEMPO GROUP OVERNIGHT FOR -SN AND MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP DOWN TOWARD THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...JGL
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