344
FXUS61 KILN 310009
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
709 PM EST TUE DEC 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING PERIODS OF SNOW TO
THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
EVENING UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME FOR THE FIRST ROUND OF SNOWFALL THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS, DID
ADD A BROAD AREA OF FLURRIES WITH SOME OF THE LIGHT ACTIVITY NOW
REACHING THE GROUND. OBSERVED SOUNDING THIS EVENING DID FIND SOME DRY
AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BUT IF A BURST OF SNOW
OCCURS ALOFT, IT WILL PENETRATE THROUGH TO THE SURFACE. EVEN THOUGH
SOME OF THIS SNOW IS REACHING THE GROUND, IT DOES NOT APPEAR
CONSISTENT ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO RESULT IN ACCUMULATIONS GREATER
THAN A DUSTING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY.
THE MORE CONSISTENT AREA OF SNOW IS NOW STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST
OHIO INTO LAKE MICHIGAN AND EASTERN WISCONSIN. TIMING STILL REMAINS
ON TRACK WITH MUCH OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW FALL LATER THIS EVENING
AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (12:45 PM)...
SCATTERED FLURRIES LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SLOWLY BACKS MORE TO
THE WEST. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. AHEAD OF
THIS, THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK A BIT MORE WITH SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL COMBINE
WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TO
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SNOW OVERNIGHT, PRIMARILY FOR THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. WITH THE COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE, SLRS
WILL BE QUITE HIGH, ON THE ORDER OF 15:1 TO 18:1. WE WILL ALSO GET
INTO A COUPLE HOUR WINDOW WHERE THE BETTER UPWARD MOTION WILL
INTERSECT WITH THE DGZ LATER TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, EXPECT FAIRLY
EFFICIENT SNOWFALL, WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO.
WITH THE SNOW MAINLY FALLING IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY ADVISORIES ATTM AND HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBLE TRAVEL IMPACTS IN
AN SPS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ANOTHER, SOMEWHAT STRONGER, MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL PIVOT DOWN
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA LATE NEW
YEAR'S EVE AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR
NORTH LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN PUSH SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN SOME WEAK WAA
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, SLRS WILL START
OFF A BIT LOWER, MORE IN THE 12:1 RANGE, BUT THEN THEY WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
AS WE GET INTO THE CAA BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL PICK UP WITH
GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE BETTER
SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH/EAST, SOME
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF LOWER
VISIBILITIES AND ENHANCED SNOW ACCUMULATION. IN GENERAL THOUGH,
EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES FOR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, TAPERING OFF TO LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST. IN AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE
MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE WINDS PICK UP.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ON THURSDAY MORNING, A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH OF THE ILN
CWA, SETTING THE STAGE FOR A DRY BUT COLD DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. AS IT LOOKS NOW, THURSDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S TO MID 30S.
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY
GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES, WITH ONLY VERY LOW CHANCES OF ANY
PRECIPITATION. THE ACTIVE MID-LEVEL WNW FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY FOCUSED TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE
PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND PERHAPS SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION (FLURRIES) COULD OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY, CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH
THAT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY NORTH OF THE AREA. AS A
RESULT, POPS ARE BEING KEPT DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BY TUESDAY,
MODEL UNCERTAINTY BECOMES HIGHER, BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAY
BEGIN TO INCREASE.
A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FROM
NORTH-TO-SOUTH THROUGH THE EXTENDED, WITH HIGHS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA
GENERALLY ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NORTHERN CWA. THIS
GRADIENT MAY OSCILLATE A BIT -- A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY FOR
WARMER TEMPS, A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH ON SATURDAY FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS. OVERALL, THOUGH, THE TREND IS FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM
UP A BIT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE SOME SNOW SPREAD INTO THE REGION ACROSS THE
NORTH. ANY SNOW DURING THE EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SCATTERED
AND LIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN. EVENTUALLY, CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON
MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS CMH/LCK BETWEEN 03Z AND 10Z, WITH SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY REACHING DAY/ILN. AN INCH OR TWO IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
COLUMBUS AREA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTHWEST OF THERE. CVG/LUK LIKELY
RECEIVE VERY LITTLE SNOW, BUT A DUSTING CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH, VFR CIGS WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR WITH
MVFR/IFR VIS OCCURRING WHERE SNOW IS ACCUMULATING. SOME IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH IMPROVEMENTS IN
CIGS FORECAST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CIGS
WITH MVFR/IFR VIS IS FORECAST BUT TIMING IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE AT
THIS TIME. THERE WILL ALSO BE A QUICK WIND SHIFT WHEN THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. THIS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR OUTSIDE THE CURRENT TAF
RANGE. SOME BANDED SNOW IS POSSIBLE AND COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE
VISIBILITY FOR A PERIOD OF TIME DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT.
WINDS ARE OUT OF THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE, WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR GREATER THAN 20 KNOTS ARRIVING
WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL/MCGINNIS
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...MCGINNIS
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