668
FXUS61 KILN 310628
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
128 AM EST WED DEC 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
AFTER AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHEAST
FROM THE CENTER THAT SHOULD BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE OVER NODAK/MN
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS HIGH MOVES EAST THROUGH OHIO SUN NIGHT, AND A
RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW LOOKS TO BRING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND
FOR NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
LIGHT SNOW IS ONGOING, THOUGH A NOTABLY HEAVIER BAND IS CROSSING
COLUMBUS METRO AT THE ISSUANCE TIME OF THIS AFD. A NOTABLE
SCATTERING/DECREASE OVER THE SW 1/3 OF CWA LOOKS TO BE OCCURRING IN A
SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE, THOUGH THIS IS NOT NOTABLE
LOOKING AT SFC DEWPOINTS.
ANY SNOW WILL HAVE ENDED BEFORE DAYBREAK, WITH 1-2" FOUND IN CENTRAL
OH AS THE SNOW POTENTIAL GOES FOR JUST AN HOUR OR TWO LATER THAN THE
BULK OF THE CWA. A SHARP CUTOFF EXISTS FROM 1" ACCUMS ALONG A
CELINA/URBANA/LOGAN LINE THEN 1/4" FROM JUST NE OF RICHMOND, IN TO
BLANCHESTER TO PEEBLES AND PORTSMOUTH.
AFTER ANY LINGERING FLURRIES THIS MORNING, A FEW BREAKS IN THE LOW
CLOUDS MAY OCCUR TOWARDS CINCY AND SW CWA, BUT STILL BE A MUTED
OVERCASTS WITH MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THE REMAINING 2/3 OF CWA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE UNDER A LOW OVERCAST DECK.
TEMPS RISE TO THE LOW 30S, BUT WILL BE OFFSET BY WEST WIND 15-20 MPH
CREATING WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
SNOW WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TONIGHT LOOKS BE BEGINNING NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR BY LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING, HOLDING OFF ON SRN 2/3 OF
CWA UNTIL AFTER NIGHTFALL. FINER SCALE MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE
SNOW WILL BE TIGHTLY LOCATED ALONG A VERY NARROW BAND OCCURRING WITH
A N-S PASSING COLD FRONT. WINDS SHIFT MORE NW AND THEN N AFTER FROPA,
BRINGING IN DRIER AIR AND QUICKLY TURNING SNOW OFF ACROSS CWA. AGAIN,
IT LOOKS LIKE THE FAVORED AREA FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LIES ALONG/N
OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR EARLY ON, THEN CENTRAL OH AND E OF SCIOTO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS, ENDING FROM N-S. AREAS NW TO SE OF
METRO CINCY LOOK TO SEE LITTLE ACCUMULATION AS THE AVAILABLE LIFTING
MECHANISM JUST DOESN'T REACH THAT FAR W.
IF THE FINER RESOLUTION CAMS END UP THE BETTER FORECAST, THE LINE
WILL CONTAIN HEAVY SNOW WITH THE LION'S SHARE OF ACCUMULATIONS
OCCURRING IN A VERY SHORT < 1HR TIME FRAME. THE PRECEDING SNOWFALL
WILL PRIME CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OH, AND ANY FOLLOWING LIGHT
SNOW WILL HAVE LITTLE TO COMPLEMENT THIS FEATURE WRT ACCUMS.
LOWS DROP TO THE LOW TEENS N OF I-70, LOW 20S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AS
THIS AREA WILL EXPERIENCE FRONTAL PASSAGE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK.
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S FOR NRN 1/3 OF CWA,
UPPER 20S DOWN TO THE OHIO RIVER, AND LOW 30S SOUTH OF THE RIVER.
CLOUDY SKIES WILL AGAIN PREVAIL, THOUGH WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA
WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST SOME SUNNY BREAKS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
NOT MUCH CHANGE IS NOTED IN THE OVERALL WEATHER FEATURES GOING
FORWARD. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN A RATHER DEEP LAYER WILL KEEP A COOL
AND RELATIVELY UNCHANGING AIRMASS WITH A SIMILAR DAY TO DAY HIGH/LOW
TEMPERATURE TREND. A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NW, AND THE HIGH WILL PASS OVER THE OHVLY
OVERNIGHT SUN.
SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO SEE THE WESTERN RIDGE OVER THE U.S. AMPLIFY,
AND HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WARMING FEATURE,
ALONG WITH A RETURN TO SLY FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH SHOULD SEE
TEMPS RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTH/UPPER 40S IN NRN KY FOR BOTH
SUN AND MON. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SUN WILL REACT TO THE BUILDING HEIGHTS
AND DROP OFF ANY TEENS, WITH READINGS RANGING FROM 20 TO 30, COOLEST
IN THE NORTH. MON NIGHT SHOULD BE MORE NOTABLY "WARMER" WITH UPPER
20S IN THE NORTH, MID 30S IN THE SOUTH.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW WILL BE FOUND OVER CMH/LCK FOR MOST OF
THE PREDAWN HOURS. VFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS
MIGHT SEE OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS AT DAY AND ILN. LOW CLOUD COVER
(LOW MVFR) BREAKS UP DURING THE DAY AT CVG/LUK BUT HANGS TOUGH FOR
REMAINING TAF SITES. SNOW DEVELOPS TOWARDS 00Z AT DAY/CMH/LCK,
LINGERING THROUGH 06Z, AND IFR CIGS/VSBYS LOOK TO ACCOMPANY IT. AT
ILN, SNOW WILL NOT LAST AS LONG AND BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL LAST LONGER AT DAY AND IN PARTICULAR CMH/LCK.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON, AND MAINTAIN A 14-15KT
SUSTAINED VELOCITY THROUGH THE NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL BE NOTABLY
LIGHTER AT CVG/LUK, WITH GUSTS ONLY OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON AND
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OVERNIGHT AROUND 10-12KT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...FRANKS
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