382
FXUS61 KILN 311200
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
700 AM EST WED DEC 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
AFTER AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHEAST
FROM THE CENTER THAT SHOULD BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE OVER NODAK/MN
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS HIGH MOVES EAST THROUGH OHIO SUN NIGHT, AND A
RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW LOOKS TO BRING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND
FOR NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MORNING UPDATE - A FEW OBSERVATIONS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE SPOTTY
ACROSS THE AREA. ROAD REPORTS ARE SHOWING A HANDFUL OF ACCIDENTS IN
COLUMBUS AND A FEW OTHERS SCATTERED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHERN OHIO. THOUGHT THE BETTER COURSE OF ACTION WAS TO BE
PROACTIVE AND ISSUE A SHORT-FUSED ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING.
AFTER ANY LINGERING FLURRIES AND SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS
MORNING, A FEW BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCUR TOWARDS CINCY AND
SW CWA, BUT STILL BE A MUTED OVERCASTS WITH MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
THE REMAINING 2/3 OF CWA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE UNDER A LOW OVERCAST
DECK.
TEMPS RISE TO THE LOW 30S, BUT WILL BE OFFSET BY WEST WIND 15-20 MPH
CREATING WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/
SNOW WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TONIGHT LOOKS BE BEGINNING NORTH OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR BY LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING, HOLDING OFF ON SRN 2/3 OF
CWA UNTIL AFTER NIGHTFALL. FINER SCALE MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE
SNOW WILL BE TIGHTLY LOCATED ALONG A VERY NARROW BAND OCCURRING WITH
A N-S PASSING COLD FRONT. WINDS SHIFT MORE NW AND THEN N AFTER FROPA,
BRINGING IN DRIER AIR AND QUICKLY TURNING SNOW OFF ACROSS CWA. AGAIN,
IT LOOKS LIKE THE FAVORED AREA FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LIES ALONG/N
OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR EARLY ON, THEN CENTRAL OH AND E OF SCIOTO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS, ENDING FROM N-S. AREAS NW TO SE OF
METRO CINCY LOOK TO SEE LITTLE ACCUMULATION AS THE AVAILABLE LIFTING
MECHANISM JUST DOESN'T REACH THAT FAR W.
IF THE FINER RESOLUTION CAMS END UP THE BETTER FORECAST, THE LINE
WILL CONTAIN HEAVY SNOW WITH THE LION'S SHARE OF ACCUMULATIONS
OCCURRING IN A VERY SHORT < 1HR TIME FRAME. THE PRECEDING SNOWFALL
WILL PRIME CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OH, AND ANY FOLLOWING LIGHT
SNOW WILL HAVE LITTLE TO COMPLEMENT THIS FEATURE WRT ACCUMS.
LOWS DROP TO THE LOW TEENS N OF I-70, LOW 20S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AS
THIS AREA WILL EXPERIENCE FRONTAL PASSAGE CLOSER TO DAYBREAK.
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S FOR NRN 1/3 OF CWA,
UPPER 20S DOWN TO THE OHIO RIVER, AND LOW 30S SOUTH OF THE RIVER.
CLOUDY SKIES WILL AGAIN PREVAIL, THOUGH WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA
WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST SOME SUNNY BREAKS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
NOT MUCH CHANGE IS NOTED IN THE OVERALL WEATHER FEATURES GOING
FORWARD. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN A RATHER DEEP LAYER WILL KEEP A COOL
AND RELATIVELY UNCHANGING AIRMASS WITH A SIMILAR DAY TO DAY HIGH/LOW
TEMPERATURE TREND. A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NW, AND THE HIGH WILL PASS OVER THE OHVLY
OVERNIGHT SUN.
SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO SEE THE WESTERN RIDGE OVER THE U.S. AMPLIFY,
AND HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WARMING FEATURE,
ALONG WITH A RETURN TO SLY FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH SHOULD SEE
TEMPS RISE BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTH/UPPER 40S IN NRN KY FOR BOTH
SUN AND MON. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SUN WILL REACT TO THE BUILDING HEIGHTS
AND DROP OFF ANY TEENS, WITH READINGS RANGING FROM 20 TO 30, COOLEST
IN THE NORTH. MON NIGHT SHOULD BE MORE NOTABLY "WARMER" WITH UPPER
20S IN THE NORTH, MID 30S IN THE SOUTH.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS FOR CVG/LUK MIGHT SEE OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING, BUT SHOULD SCATTER OUT IN THE AFTERNOON UNDERNEATH A MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK. FOR THE REMAINING TERMINALS, LOW CLOUD COVER
(MVFR) HANGS TOUGH THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS EVENING, VFR SNOW WAS BROUGHT IN EARLY AHEAD OF FROPA. AS THE
FRONT PASSES SOUTH, A NARROW BAND OF IFR, POSSIBLY LIFR WILL BRING
THE BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN A SHORT 1-MAYBE 2 HOUR TIME FRAME.
SNOW SHOULDN'T LINGER MUCH PAST THE FROPA AS NW WINDS TURNING N WILL
BRING DRIER AIR.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY, MORESO THIS AFTERNOON, AND MAINTAIN A 14-15KT
SUSTAINED VELOCITY THROUGH THE NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL BE NOTABLY
LIGHTER AT CVG/LUK, WITH GUSTS ONLY OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON AND
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OVERNIGHT DROPPING TO 10-12KT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY TONIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-035-
043>046-051>056-062>065-073-074.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...FRANKS
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