394
FXUS61 KILN 010043
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
743 PM EST WED DEC 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW TO
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME
NARROW BANDS OF BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES POSSIBLE. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING BY THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
EVENING UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE OVERALL EXPECTATIONS FOR SNOWFALL AND
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING. THE ONLY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WERE TO SHARPEN UP TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT DROPS GIVEN THE
SHARPNESS TO THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP FOLLOWING
THE BAND OF SNOW MOVING IN, SOME 10 TO 12 DEGREES WITHIN A VERY SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. IF ENOUGH SNOW FALLS IN THE BAND, ROAD CONDITIONS
COULD CHANGE QUITE QUICKLY, ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS WHERE ROADS ARE
WET.
THE SNOW BAND OF CONCERNS IS CURRENTLY VERY NARROW, DROPPING INTO
NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO. IF IT REMAINS THIS NARROW, IT
WOULD ONLY BE ABOUT A 5 OR 10 MINUTE PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL
RATES, LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT SNOW SQUALL WARNINGS. HOWEVER, AS
NOTED PREVIOUSLY, THE RAPID DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RESULT IN
SLICK CONDITIONS FOLLOWING ANY BURST OF SNOWFALL. OTHERWISE, LIGHT
SNOW IS CONTINUING TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING OR RIGHT AT FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA, LIMITING ROADWAY IMPACTS AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE COLDEST
ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO, ABOUT 28 TO 29 DEGREES. THESE LOCATIONS ARE
OBSERVING SNOW STICKING TO ROADWAYS. AN SPS REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THIS
LIGHT SNOWFALL. ANY UPGRADE TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE INTENSITY AND DURATION OF THE BANDED SNOW AS IT
MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (1:17 PM)...
A PRETTY POTENT AND QUICKLY MOVING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL DROP
THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BEGINNING THIS EVENING
THROUGH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
BY EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH, WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW.
BRIEF WAA WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW RATIOS IN THE 12:1 TO 14:1 RANGE AT
SNOW ONSET WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. HOWEVER, AS LOW LEVEL/SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AFTER 00Z DROP, RATIOS INCREASE TO 15:1 AND APPROACH
20:1. ADDITIONALLY, AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AREAS ESPECIALLY
NEAR/NORTH OF THE I70 CORRIDOR, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY BRIEF
AND NARROW HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW, WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME
LOCATIONS TO PICK UP A QUICK BURST OF ACCUMULATION IN THE 10PM-3AM
TIMEFRAME ACROSS THE NORTH, ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL OHIO. OVERALL, THE
SNOW SQUALL POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO REMAIN MORE FAVORABLE TO THE NORTH
AND EAST, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ABRUPT
BURSTS OF SNOW THIS NEW YEAR'S NIGHT. THIS SHOULD TAKE THE SNOW
TOTALS TO A WIDESPREAD 1" ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA, WITH UP TO 2" POSSIBLE WHERE BRIEF BURSTS OF SNOW OCCURS
ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT.
A LESSER CHANCE FOR NARROW HEAVIER SNOW BANDS DOES EXIST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OHIO/SOUTHEAST INDIANA, BUT OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE 1" OR LESS. SOME AREAS OF NORTHERN KY GENERALLY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE I-71/I-75 SPLIT MAY SEE ONLY FLURRIES, WITH ABOUT 0.5"
FURTHER EAST FROM BROOKSVILLE TO VANCEBURG.
WINDS WILL PIVOT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH
POSSIBLE. GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH THE PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES COULD
RESULT IN SOME BLOWING OF SNOW WELL AFTER ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS
ENDED.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY
MORNING, USHERING IN A DRIER AND COLDER AIRMASS. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY BUT NW
FLOW REMAINS, KEEPING THE REGION UNDER CLOUDY SKIES, THOUGH SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING ALONG/SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS INTO HE REGION, BECOMING CENTERED
OVER THE MID/LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ADDITIONAL
PARTIAL CLEARING THROUGH MORE OF THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH, WITH SOME RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ON FRIDAY MORNING, A WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A DRY AND COOL AIR MASS
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, BUT WITH MORE OF A
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL
BE A WIDE RANGE IN MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE ILN FORECAST AREA,
WITH UPPER 20S IN THE NORTH AND LOWER 40S IN THE SOUTH.
WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION ON WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW, TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN FRIDAY. THE REST OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPERATURES, WITH ONLY VERY LOW CHANCES OF ANY
PRECIPITATION. A SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO THE VERY
FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY, BUT IT IS
MORE LIKELY THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE,
THE ACTIVE MID-LEVEL WNW FLOW PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM WILL REMAIN GENERALLY FOCUSED TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD GOING INTO NEXT WEEK, CONFIDENCE
REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THAT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY NORTH OF
THE AREA. AS A RESULT, POPS ARE BEING KEPT DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, MODEL UNCERTAINTY BECOMES HIGHER, BUT
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.
A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FROM
NORTH-TO-SOUTH THROUGH THE EXTENDED, WITH HIGHS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA
GENERALLY ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NORTHERN CWA. BY MONDAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
BUSY FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE TAF AS LIGHT SNOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
ONCE AGAIN. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LIGHT SNOW WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES WHICH WILL LOCALLY REDUCE VISIBILITY FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO AMEND TAFS AS NECESSARY WHEN
THE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING INCREASES.
OTHERWISE, BLUSTERY SOUTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
GUSTING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS. MVFR CIGS ARE OCCURRING FOR ALL
SITES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
WINDS WILL SHARPLY TURN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, CIGS BEGIN TO IMPROVE FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER 12Z THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING
AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY.
CAN'T RULE OUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF ACROSS
CMH/LCK, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO ADD AT THIS TIME. MAINTAINED
SCT MENTION UNTIL CONFIDENCE IMPROVES EITHER WAY.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR/MCGINNIS
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...MCGINNIS
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