986
FXUS61 KILN 010619
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
119 AM EST THU JAN 1 2026
SYNOPSIS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND,
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. A SLOW WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER, WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
MIDWEEK OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE PREFRONTAL BAND OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT OFF TO THE S OF
THE LOCAL AREA, AS THE SEPARATE THIN/NARROW LINE OF SNOW ALONG THE
FRONT ITSELF CONTINUES TO PROGRESS S THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. THIS W-E
ORIENTED FRONTAL BAND SHOULD MOVE CLOSE TO THE OH RVR BY 08Z AND
EVENTUALLY OUT OF THE ILN FA BY 10Z. BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE BEING
OBSERVED WITH THIS NARROW LINE OF SN, BUT THE QUICK NATURE OF IT IS
LIMITING ACCUMULATION TO ONLY A FEW TENTHS, WITH SOME ROADS HAVING
BRIEF ACCUMULATIONS. ALTHOUGH TEMPS ARE DROPPING FAIRLY QUICKLY
BEHIND THIS NARROW SNOW BAND (~5 DEGREES IN LESS THAN 10 MINUTES),
THE MOISTURE ON THE ROAD SHOULD DRY SOMEWHAT QUICKLY AS NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 10-15KTS PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. WILL NONETHELESS CONTINUE MENTION IN THE HWO AND SPS TO
MAINTAIN AWARENESS FOR ISOLATED SLICK SPOTS THROUGH THE PREDAWN
HOURS.
AS THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER S, STRONG CAA WILL UNFOLD LOCALLY DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS, WITH TEMPS GOING INTO THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S
NEAR I-70 BY DAYBREAK. FURTHER TO THE S (NEAR/S OF THE OH RVR), TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S BY DAYBREAK, BUT CAA WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO NUDGE DOWN A BIT MORE IN THESE AREAS THROUGH MID
MORNING BEFORE PLATEAUING AND NUDGING UP A FEW DEGREES ONCE AGAIN BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE DIURNAL REBOUND FOR THIS AFTERNOON FROM MORNING
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 5-7 DEGREES, EVEN WITH QUITE
SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT/VRB INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER OVERSPREADING THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE QUICKLY TRAVERSES THE REGION. SOME VERY
BRIEF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN FAR NRN PARTS OF THE
LOCAL AREA WHERE MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE GREATEST BEFORE IT DRIFTS
AWAY FROM THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A
SYSTEM TRACKS E ACROSS THE NRN TN VLY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY TO THE S OF THE AREA INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH
DRY CONDITIONS BEING MAINTAINED LOCALLY AS IT DOES SO.
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN THE N TO THE
MID/UPPER 20S NEAR/S OF THE OH RVR. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL REACH INTO
THE MID 20S N OF I-70 TO THE UPPER 30S S OF THE OH RVR AMIDST A MIX
OF SUN AND CLOUDS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, WITH ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION GENERALLY STAYING TO OUR
SOUTH BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF MPAS RUNS
WHICH BRING COLD RAIN OR PERHAPS LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION AS FAR
NORTH AS NORTHEAST KENTUCKY, BUT THE MAJORITY OF AVAILABLE MODELS
KEEP OUR CWA DRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, OFFERING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH
EXITS TO THE EAST. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW STARTING MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE 40S MONDAY AND UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME RANGE, WE WILL START TO SEE A CHANCE OF RAIN BY MIDWEEK AS THE
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST FOR THE TAF PERIOD IS GOING TO BE THE
NARROW BAND OF SN AND ABRUPT WIND SHIFT WITH THE FRONT WITHIN THE
FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT, THE FRONT HAS ALREADY
MADE IT THROUGH KCMH, WITH THE FROPA EXPECTED FOR KDAY/KLCK AROUND
06Z. THE THIN LINE OF SN WILL BRING WITH IT BRIEF/SUDDEN VSBY
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR, BUT THESE SUDDEN REDUCTIONS WON'T LAST MORE
THAN 30 MINUTES AT MOST. VSBY SHOULD RETURN TO VFR QUICKLY AS THE
LINE MOVES AWAY FROM EACH SITE, WITH SRN SITES OF KCVG/KLUK LIKELY TO
HAVE THE FROPA (AND CORRESPONDING AROUND 08Z.
MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH DAYBREAK AS THEY SCATTER OUT FROM N
TO S. MID CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY 18Z, WITH 5-8KFT
CIGS ARRIVING/DEVELOPING BY 00Z ONCE AGAIN.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
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