007
FXUS61 KILN 081113
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
613 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
CHANCES FOR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, AND THEN AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. AFTER A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY
AND BEYOND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
UPDATING TO INCLUDE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA,
WITH NUMEROUS OBSERVATION SITES (MAINLY IN CENTRAL OHIO) AT 1/4SM
VISIBILITY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (125 AM) >
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS FOR FOG, PARTICULARLY IN CENTRAL
OHIO. NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE IMAGERY IS HELPING TO SHOW
THAT FOG HAS BECOME MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE COLUMBUS METRO AREA,
WITH SOME PATCHIER FOG EXTENDING INTO THE DAYTON METRO AREA, AND
RIVER VALLEY FOG IMPACTING THE LOWER SCIOTO AND PARTS OF THE OHIO
BASINS. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE CREATED CONDITIONS TO FAVOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT, BUT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS COULD KEEP THE DENSE FOG FROM BECOMING OVERLY WIDESPREAD.
STILL, CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH THAT IT WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY,
SO CONTINUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS (OR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF
THE FOG BECOMES THICKER AND MORE CONCENTRATED) WILL PROBABLY BE
NEEDED THROUGH MORNING.
ASIDE FROM THIS, THE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS, AND GRADUALLY INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY JANUARY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AN AREA OF SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM
THE QUAD CITIES AREA THIS EVENING TO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
BY FRIDAY MORNING. DEEP-LAYER SOUTHERLY / SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE LOW, WITH A COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL SWITCH WINDS TO THE WEST AND RESULT IN FALLING
TEMPERATURES.
WIND WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM. AS OF NOW, CONFIDENCE
IS NOT THERE TO SUGGEST ADVISORY-CRITERIA WINDS AT ANY POINT DURING
THIS PERIOD, BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. FIRST, THERE WILL BE
WARM ADVECTION WINDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT -- 50-60 KNOTS AT
850MB -- A NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION WILL KEEP THESE WINDS FROM BEING
FULLY REALIZED. THIS FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD, BUT THIS COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE, AND
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR IT TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER. A BROKEN LINE
OF SHOWERS MAY ALSO FORM ON A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT, MOVING THROUGH SOME TIME VERY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY, A PERIOD OF GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED, PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 40-45 MPH DEPENDING ON
THE DEPTH OF THE MIXING. THE STRONGEST OF THESE GUSTS SHOULD ONLY
LAST A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT, BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO RELAX. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES ON
WHEN EXACTLY THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, BUT IT SHOULD BE
SOME TIME DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH STEADIER
PRECIPITATION WILL BE COMING TO AN END ONCE THE FRONT PASSES, THERE
ARE SOME SIGNS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE PERSISTING BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR A WHILE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN TOO WARM FOR SNOW.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
INITIAL WAVE OF RAIN SHIFTS EAST OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE TROPOSPHERE GIVEN THE LONGWAVE H5 TROUGH THAT IS POSITIONED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THUS, MOISTURE INFLUX WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY, AND AS ADDITIONAL PVA PIVOTS THROUGH THE REGION, PERIODS
OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RAPIDLY DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH COLD
AIR BEING USHERED BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF
THE H5 TROUGH AND PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES,
SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE TROUGH PROPAGATES
EASTWARD. AS OF NOW, LIMITED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (IF ANY) ARE
EXPECTED.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST A DRY START TO THE FOLLOWING WORK
WEEK. HOWEVER, A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL RETURN BY MIDWEEK WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF ANOTHER LONGWAVE H5 TROUGH.
AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
IN THE NEAR TERM, FOG WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT, WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT KILN/KDAY/KCMH, AND OCCASIONAL IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
AT KLUK/KLCK. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 14Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED DURING THE DAY, WITH INCREASING MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST, WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.
THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS, AND A LOWER-END CHANCE OF GUSTS
EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS (NOT SPECIFICALLY INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME). LLWS WILL ALSO OCCUR FOR A PERIOD OF SEVERAL HOURS AT EACH TAF
SITE.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 08Z, THOUGH AVIATION
IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED. CEILINGS WILL EVENTUALLY DROP TO MVFR ON
FRIDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-044>046-
052>056-063>065-073-074-082-088.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HATZOS
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