514
FXUS61 KILN 081731
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1231 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, AND THEN AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA, COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PIVOT UP ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES, PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
OTHERWISE, A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT EAST INTO OUR
AREA OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING UP INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND AS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. IN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW, MOIST ASCENT AND INCREASING
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH THIS ACTIVITY
THEN SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SOME
VERY WEAK, MAINLY ELEVATED, INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT GIVEN THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. SOME GUSTS IN THE 30
TO 40 MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT WITH THE
DEVELOPING SHOWERS. GIVEN THE WINDS AND WAA PATTERN, TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY IN THE
50S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
THERE REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. IN GENERAL THOUGH, THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. IN THE DEVELOPING CAA AND BETTER MIXING,
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WE
WILL SEE SOME NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY, WITH READINGS
MAXING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THEN LEVELING OFF/DROPPING OFF IN
THE CAA BEHIND THE FRONT.
MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING SLOWER/FARTHER SOUTH WITH SOME SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY MOVING UP INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT, EXPECT MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO REMAIN DRY WITH SOME CHANCE POPS
MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHEAST LATE. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CUTOFF LOW NEAR MN WILL BRING STREAMWISE VORTICITY LOBE SW-NE ACROSS
CWA, LEADING TO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES, PARTICULARLY IN THE SE WHERE
A SURFACE LOW IS TRACKING NE FROM KY TO WV. THIS LOW IS LOCATED
ALONG THE WV/OH BORDER IN THE AFTERNOON, CREATING WLY FLOW BEHIND IT
AS IT BEHAVES MORE LIKE A COLD FRONT. LATER IN THE DAY, H5 LOW MOVES
OVER WI AND RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END FROM SW-NE. BELIEVE THE POPS ON
WED AND IN PARTICULAR THE AFTERNOON ARE TOO HIGH, BUT THERE WILL BE
RAIN AROUND SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE HERE. AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS TO
ERN MI/LHON SAT NIGHT, SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS WILL CHANGE OVER ANY
LINGERING PRECIP TO SNOW. THIS PRECIP LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT, BUT
PUTTING ANY PLACEMENT ON IT ISN'T POSSIBLE ATTM.
CUTOFF LOW AND L/W TROUGH RACES EAST SUN NIGHT AND IS LOCATED ENE OF
ME, WITH NW-W FLOW ALOFT FOUND IN OHVLY. THE NEXT CDFNT IS CURRENTLY
BEING PROGGED FOR AN EARLY WEDNESDAY PASSAGE, WHICH IS A LITTLE
EARLIER THAN I'D EXPECT WITH H5 L/W TROUGH ONLY INDICATED OVER CWA
BY 00Z THURS.
WHILE NOT NEARLY AS MILD AS FRIDAY SHOULD BE, SAT WILL BE THE
WARMEST OF THE EXTENDED FCST WITH HIGHS MID-UPPER 40S NW, MID-UPPER
50S SE WITH THE LARGER DIFFERENCE OCCURRING DUE TO FROPA IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOWS SAT NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 20S, SUNDAY HIGHS NEAR
30, AND IN THE LOWER 20S SUN NIGHT. MON WILL BEGIN A REBOUND AND
ULTIMATELY RISE TO REACH THE MID 40S ON TUE, A LITTLE COOLER WED
WITH FROPA INDICATIONS - UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. BEHIND THE FRONT,
THURS WILL BE ANOTHER COLD ONE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S-LOW 30S.
AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN UP THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT EAST INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE RAIN MOVES IN,
MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. PCPN WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST LATER FRIDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. LLWS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...JGL
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