320
FXUS61 KILN 091111
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
611 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, BRINGING RAIN AND
WINDY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE RAIN ON
SATURDAY, WITH MUCH COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
610AM UPDATE...
A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES IN
WEST-CENTRAL OH. THIS AREA HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS THAT
COULD EXCEED 45 MPH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THROUGH MORNING, THE ILN CWA WILL REMAIN IN A WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN, WITH A 60-70 KNOT 850MB LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THIS WIND ENERGY IS FAILING TO REACH THE
SURFACE AS A RESULT OF AN INVERSION, BUT 30-40 MPH WIND GUSTS ARE
BEING OBSERVED IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA, AND SHOULD SPREAD
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEVERAL
NARROW BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS -- SOMEWHAT CONVECTIVE, THOUGH MOSTLY
THUNDERLESS -- ARE MOVING ACROSS INDIANA. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
ALSO SPREAD EAST INTO THE ILN CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THOUGH
WITH INSTABILITY VERY WEAK, IT IS UNCLEAR IF THESE SHOWERS OR
CONVECTIVE LINES WILL BE CAPABLE OF ENHANCING WINDS ABOVE AND BEYOND
THE BACKGROUND FLOW.
A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY, GENERALLY BETWEEN 14Z AND 19Z. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO
THE WEST AND AT LEAST TEMPORARILY PRODUCE SOME STEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
LAPSE RATES. AS THIS COLD ADVECTION BEGINS, WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH
ARE EXPECTED, WITH THE STRONGEST VALUES GENERALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD ONLY LAST A
FEW HOURS BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX AND WINDS
DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY STRONG, BUT MEDIUM IN THE
EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE GUSTS WITH THE FRONT. ILN CRITERIA FOR A
WIND ADVISORY (40 KNOTS / 46 MPH) IS NOT IN THE FORECAST AS OF NOW,
BUT IS ALSO NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY.
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES, EARLY-DAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THE LOWER TO MID 60S. SOME UPPER 60S IN THE FAR SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST
MAY OCCUR. THESE FORECAST TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT, WITH MIN TEMPS
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S BY SATURDAY MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY, AS
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL SPREAD RAIN
INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON SATURDAY. OVERALL,
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK NOTABLE, AS THE ILN CWA WILL BE
CAUGHT IN BETWEEN STRONGER FORCING TO THE NORTH AND A STRONGER FEED
OF MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
SURFACE LOW EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT, LIMITING
COVERAGE IN PCPN. STRONG CAA WILL ENSUE WITH THE MEAN H5 TROUGH
BARRELING THROUGH THE MIDWEST REGION. A POTENT VORT LOBE WILL PIVOT
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION ON SUNDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL TRANSFER SOME
MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO OUR CWA, WHICH MAY HELP WITH
INITIALIZING LIGHT SNOWFALL ON SUNDAY. THERMAL SOUNDINGS NOT
INDICATIVE OF ANY HEAVY OR PERSISTENT SNOWFALL GIVEN THAT ANY
SATURATION IN THE DGZ IS SHALLOW AND ONLY PERSISTS FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF TIME ON SUNDAY. THUS, DO NOT HIGHLIGHT ANY SNOW ACCUMS IN
THE GRIDS FOR NOW. NOTE THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE BREEZY ONCE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY, WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME.
H5 TROUGH QUICKLY SHIFTS TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT,
WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH
STRETCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, IMMEDIATELY RESULTING IN
RETURN FLOW FOR OUR FA BY MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER
WARMING TREND TO ENSUE THROUGH MID-WEEK, BUT FAR LESS IMPRESSIVE
THAN THE CURRENT ANOMALOUS WARMTH THE OHIO VALLEY IS EXPERIENCING.
TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE
MIDDLE 40S TO NEAR 50.
THE WARMING TREND QUICKLY ENDS AS ANOTHER H5 TROUGH SINKS DOWN INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, OFFERING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR PCPN. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW EXPECTED WITH THIS WAVE, BUT
OVERALL QPF REMAINS LIGHT ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
CONTINUING TO INCREASE, AND SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OR
EVEN ALREADY OCCURRING. RAIN WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE AREA, THOUGH
IMPACTS TO AVIATION CONDITIONS FROM THE RAIN WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.
TOMORROW, SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP, AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
BETWEEN 16Z-18Z, SHIFTING WINDS QUICKLY TO THE WEST, WITH GUSTS OF
30-35 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON, AND BECOME
MUCH LIGHTER AS THEY CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND THEN
NORTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>044.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HATZOS
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