716
FXUS61 KILN 091820
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
120 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS
AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE RAIN ON
SATURDAY, WITH MUCH COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND.
AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION TO
A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
BROAD MID LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE NATIONS MID SECTION. AN INITIAL
SHORTWAVE AND DEEP SURFACE WILL EJECT FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA THIS EVENING. A SOUTHWARD TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT
TO SWEEP EAST THRU ILN/S FA THIS AFTERNOON.
COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS WITH WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH EXPECTED, WITH
THE STRONGEST VALUES NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THE STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO
RELAX AND WINDS DIMINISH QUICKLY BY LATE AFTERNOON - WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TEMPORARILY BUILDING IN. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE BEHIND
THE FRONT TONIGHT, WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH BY SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO PIVOT NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF
DEVELOPING LOW DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. RAIN WILL SPREAD
INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH QPF OF 1 TO 2 TENTHS, AS THE WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHIFTS QUICKLY TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY. ON THE WARM SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM - HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO
THE MID 50S SOUTHEAST.
FOCUS SHIFTS TO DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW THAT SETTLES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. IMPRESSIVE VORT ASSOCIATED WITH TROF TO PIVOT
THRU THE AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS PRESENTS A GOOD
SIGNAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS - ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST WHERE FAVORABLE FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL EXIST. HAVE BUMPED
UP POPS OVER NBM WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATION LESS THAN A HALF INCH. LOW
TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PIVOT ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH
CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW/LOW LEVEL CAA, EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR NORTH. SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS ALSO LOOK FAIRLY FAVORABLE,
SO SOME LOCALIZED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL THEN TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST HEADING INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE BETTER FORCING MOVES OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MUCH COLDER WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 30S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE TENNESSEE AND SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA AND LEAD TO A
WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS BY TUESDAY BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND HELP CARVE OUT A DEEPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
USHER IN A COLDER AIRMASS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PCPN WILL
START OFF AS RAIN BUT BEGIN TO MIX WITH/TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN. WITH THE
UPPER LEVELS TROUGH OVERHEAD, IT WILL BE TOUGH TO RULE OUT SOME
LOWER END CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PUSH EAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST, WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 KNOTS. THESE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON, AND BECOME MUCH LIGHTER AS
THEY CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOP LATE WITH RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. CEILINGS
TO DROP TO IFR BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
MVFR CEILINGS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>044.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...AR
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