150
FXUS61 KILN 101118
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
618 AM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA TODAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA SUNDAY, BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS, AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
CONDITIONS ON THIS SATURDAY MORNING ARE STARTING OUT QUITE A BIT
COOLER THAN ON FRIDAY, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY TO MID
JANUARY. WITH A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STILL IN PLACE,
A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TODAY,
WITH A VERY WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKING ON A TRAJECTORY PERHAPS JUST
OUTSIDE THE ILN FORECAST AREA TO THE WEST AND NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP
THE ILN CWA ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, AND AS FORCING AND
MOISTURE INCREASE OVER THE REGION, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
TO KEEP PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN
GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS, SO NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED.
BEHIND THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW, A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE ILN FORECAST AREA, USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR AND
WESTERLY WINDS THAT MAY GUST INTO THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/
MAIN CONCERN FOR SUNDAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS (POSSIBLY
SNOW SQUALLS) AND GUSTY WINDS.
WHILE THE INITIAL COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
EVENING WILL INDICATE THE START OF A PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION, IT
WILL BE A SECOND PUSH OF COLD AIR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THAT MAY
BRING SOME IMPACTFUL WEATHER TO THE AREA. A MID-LEVEL LOW, INITIALLY
OVER WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY EVENING, WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A PV
ANOMALY, WHICH WILL BE SLIDING ESE INTO THE ILN CWA DURING THE
06Z-18Z TIME FRAME. INITIALLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN 30S, BUT THE COLD ADVECTION SHOULD BRING TEMPS INTO THE 20S
WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS. AS THIS OCCURS, THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BECOME
MIXED, WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES, WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS (POSSIBLY
AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS), AND SMALL AMOUNTS OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.
WHILE THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY MOIST, THE FORCING AND
INSTABILITY APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS, AS
INDICATED BY THE CAM SUITE.
AT THE VERY LEAST, A FEW HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS APPEAR
LIKELY, AND DEPENDING ON THEIR TRACK SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UP
TO AN INCH ARE A POSSIBILITY. THERE IS CERTAINLY SOME CHANCE THAT
LEGITIMATE SNOW SQUALLS COULD DEVELOP -- THE PV ANOMALY, STEEP LAPSE
RATES, AND INSTABILITY THAT JUST NUDGES INTO THE DGZ WOULD SUPPORT
THIS SUGGESTION. TWO LIMITING FACTORS (LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN THIS
BECOMING AN IMPACTFUL SNOW SQUALL EVENT) ARE THE RELATIVELY WARM
STARTING POINT, AND THE LACK OF A SHARP / WELL-DEFINED SECONDARY
COLD FRONT. IN TERMS OF TIMING, THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW
SHOWERS / SNOW SQUALLS WILL BE FROM MIDNIGHT TO 8AM.
BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THE MAJORITY OF THE
IMPACTFUL SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING, BUT LIGHT SNOW / FLURRIES
MAY PERSIST FOR A WHILE. IN ADDITION, A SYNOPTIC PRESSURE GRADIENT
MAY BRING SOME ADDITIONAL 20-30 KNOT GUSTS TO THE AREA, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN CENTRAL OHIO.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MEAN
TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
BACK IN BEFORE ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WORK
WEEK. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED TO OUR SOUTH,
RESULTING IN RETURN FLOW ON MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
TREND BACK TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE
THE MILDEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS RANGING
INTO THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ON TUESDAY, WITH THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS PRIMARILY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STILL A BIT OF RANGE IN PEAK GUSTS,
BUT PROBABILITIES ARE PRETTY LOW FOR WIDESPREAD GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH
AT THIS JUNCTURE.
WHILE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TUESDAY, A SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN THROUGH THE MIDWEST REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. ON WEDNESDAY, A
MORE ROBUST LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD AND PROVIDE FORCING
FOR MORE PCPN. PRECIP WILL PRIMARILY START AS RAIN EARLY IN THE DAY,
BUT THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW MIXING IN BY THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THERMAL PROFILES COOL. QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY
IN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AMONGST GLOBAL MODELS, BUT SOME ACCUMULATIONS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY BRIEFLY OFFERS A DRY SPELL BEFORE ANOTHER H5 SHORTWAVE
EJECTS THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. OVERALL, THE PATTERN
LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING. CEILINGS
ARE TRANSITIONING FROM VFR TO MVFR, AND IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED A
FEW HOURS FROM NOW. AS RAIN DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH, MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO OCCUR LATER THIS MORNING. THESE
DIMINISHED AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
IN TERMS OF WINDS, CURRENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH BY
MID TO LATE MORNING, WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KNOTS EXPECTED.
THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z, WITH VISIBILITIES
IMPROVING TO VFR, AND CEILINGS IMPROVING TO VFR WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR
STILL IN THE AREA.
AFTER 08Z, SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THESE
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR CEILINGS AND GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS. ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY ONLY LISTED WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES, IT IS
LIKELY THAT SOME BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR.
OUTLOOK...SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING, WITH MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HATZOS
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