754
FXUS61 KILN 111147
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
647 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
SOME SNOW TO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY, ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES.
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY, ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW ON WEDNESDAY, AND COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
UPDATE (647 AM)...
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THE INTENSITY OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS HAS THUS FAR BEEN
VARIABLE, WITH ONE OF THE MORE INTENSE SHOWERS IMPACTING DELAWARE
COUNTY OH (BETWEEN 5AM AND 6AM) WITH GUSTY WINDS AND QUICK
ACCUMULATIONS, WHILE OTHER SNOW SHOWERS HAVE NOT BEEN AS STRONG.
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
OF THE SNOW SHOWERS TO BE HEAVY. WHILE ROAD SURFACES HAVE THUS FAR
BEEN SLOWER TO ACCUMULATE THAN GRASSY AREAS, THERE IS DEFINITELY SOME
REFREEZING POTENTIAL ON ROAD SURFACES AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
DROP, PARTICULARLY AFTER INITIALLY BECOMING WET.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (106 AM) >
AN UPPER LOW AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY NICELY DEPICTS THE
LOCATION OF A MAXIMA IN VORTICITY, SPINNING ALOFT OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AS OF 100 AM. WELL AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, A BAND OF SNOW HAS
BEEN MOVING EAST ACROSS INDIANA, AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ILN
FORECAST AREA DURING THE 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME. THE RADAR DEPICTION OF
THIS BAND HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY WEAKENING OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO, BUT
IT WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS,
PARTICULARLY ON GRASSY OR RAISED SURFACES. HOWEVER, GREATER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO TWO INCHES (AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED BY SOME MODELS)
NOW SEEM TO BE UNLIKELY.
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS BAND OF SNOW, THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
CLEARING, BEFORE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND FORCING ROTATES INTO THE
AREA. CAM DEPICTIONS SUGGEST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL ENVELOP MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH SOME CONFIDENCE THAT THE FAR SOUTHERN ILN
CWA COULD MISS OUT ON ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
COLD ADVECTION, WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO FALL, THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A SINGLE SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT -- KEEPING THE SNOW
SHOWERS MORE SCATTERED THAN FOCUSED. CONFIDENCE IN TRULY GETTING
SNOW SQUALLS IS NOT VERY HIGH AT THIS POINT, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SMALL AMOUNTS OF CAPE OVERLAPPING
WITH THE DGZ. AT THE LEAST, A FEW HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING QUICK ACCUMULATIONS OF A HALF INCH OR SO, ESPECIALLY AS
GROUND CONDITIONS WILL BE GETTING COLDER.
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS (25-30 MPH) WILL ALSO OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY -- STARTING WITH THE INITIAL BAND OF SNOW, AND CONTINUING
THROUGH AFTERNOON WITH ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD END ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN
18Z-22Z.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT, WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND WEAKENING WINDS ALLOWING LOWS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON MONDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ITS INFLUENCE
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE LOCATION OF
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PROMOTE RETURN FLOW, RESULTING IN A MILD AIR
MASS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST HIGH
TEMPS PEAKING IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S. BREEZY CONDITIONS ALSO
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE.
THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL DIVE THROUGH
THE MIDWEST REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PERIODS OF RAINFALL
CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SWEEP
THROUGH OUR FA ON WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN CAA BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY
AND PERHAPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THERMAL PROFILES BEGIN TO COOL, SNOW
WILL MIX IN BEFORE A FULL TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED. STILL
LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WITH THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM, PRIMARILY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY WILL ENSUE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS
WE REMAIN IN-BETWEEN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES. IN THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW REGIME HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOWFLAKES FALLING DURING
THE DAYTIME WITH SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORTED FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER ON THURSDAY AS AN ARCTIC AIR
MASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION, WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE 20S.
THE NEXT H5 SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND, BUT THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY AMONGST GLOBAL
MODELS ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAFS THROUGH THE NEXT
6-9 HOURS.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING, POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE
SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE VFR, BUT THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MVFR
TO IFR VISIBILITIES, AND MAY ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR CEILINGS AND
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE
EXACTLY THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT, THE TEMPO GROUPS IN THE TAFS
ARE GENERALLY MVFR, BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE UPDATED TO IFR ONCE IT
BECOMES MORE CLEAR THAT SNOW SHOWERS WOULD IMPACT A GIVEN TAF SITE.
BY LATE AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING, CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT TO VFR,
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z. SOME 15-20 KNOT
WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HATZOS
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