807
FXUS61 KILN 120557
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1257 AM EST MON JAN 12 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BRINGING RAIN ON WEDNESDAY THAT WILL CHANGE
TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AIR IS THEN EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
HEIGHT RISES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH A GRADUAL
WEST-TO-EAST EROSION OF THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE
FOR A WHILE. ONCE THESE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT, MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY, WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS ON OCCASION.
WITH A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY, DIURNAL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 20-30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S.
ON TUESDAY, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT, WITH A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER, WILL
BRING SOME 25-35 MPH WIND GUSTS TO THE ILN CWA ON TUESDAY,
PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME WEAK
UPPER FORCING WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE AREA BY
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION, BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED OVER THE ILN
CWA, SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH 00Z LOOK VERY LOW.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
POPS INTRODUCED BACK INTO THE FORECAST TUESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE BETTER
FORCING HOWEVER ARRIVES LATE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE
SURFACE FRONT, WHICH IS CORRELATED WITH THE HIGHEST POPS. EXPECT
PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE BEGINNING OF WEDNESDAY TO FALL AS RAIN
GIVEN THE WARMER THERMAL PROFILES. THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BEGIN TO COOL THE ATMOSPHERE.
AS A RESULT, SNOW WILL BEGIN TO MIX IN FROM WEST TO EAST. THE
BIGGEST FEATURE TO MONITOR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A SECONDARY VORT
LOBE THROUGH SWINGS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. GIVEN THE COLDER AIR MASS NOW IN PLACE, THIS ENERGY WILL HELP
INITIATE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FA. ENSEMBLES FROM THE EURO AND GFS
SUGGEST FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL, WITH THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS SUGGESTING A RANGE OF 0.5" TO 2.0" OF SNOW ACROSS OUR
CWA (WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS TO THE EAST). CAM GUIDANCE WILL HELP
PROVIDE A LITTLE MORE INSIGHT ON EXACT SNOW TOTALS FOR THE REGION,
BUT THE TIMING OF SNOWFALL WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STICKING TO
ROADWAYS AND THUS HAVING SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS.
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER INTO THE BEGINNING OF THURSDAY
BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EJECTS TO THE EAST. ARCTIC AIR MASS
SETTLES INTO THE REGION, WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 20S.
THERE WILL ONLY BE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP ACTIVITY BEFORE ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH OUR FA DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST
GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES, BUT THE STORY HERE IS THAT MORE
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ON THE WAY.
AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS ARE STILL IN PLACE, BUT CLEARING IS GRADUALLY WORKING
IN FROM WEST TO EAST, SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY 12Z AT ALL
TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 5-10 KNOTS,
THOUGH THEY COULD BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER AT TIMES. WINDS WILL THEN
STRENGTHEN A BIT DURING THE DAY TODAY, WITH SOME 20-25 KNOT
SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS
WELL.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HATZOS
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