791
FXUS61 KILN 122318
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
618 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH
TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY, BRINGING RAIN ON WEDNESDAY THAT WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AIR IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THIS EVENING, LEADING TO SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AT
TIMES INTO TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/
A STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND THIS WILL HELP BEGIN TO
CARVE OUT A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION AS WE HEAD
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO PUSH AN INITIAL COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. AS WE BEGIN TO MOISTEN UP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL
BE THE START OF A MUCH COLDER WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. RAIN IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW CHANCES AFTER FROPA. ADDITIONAL SNOW COULD
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY MAX MOVES THROUGH. WITH THIS IN MIND, LIGHT ACCUMULATING
SNOW MAY IMPACT THE THURSDAY MORNING (AROUND AND INCH OR LESS FOR
MOST LOCATIONS). COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY WHEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO
THE SOUTH ALONG WITH BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
REGION.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ON
SATURDAY. WIND CHILLS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN UP TUESDAY WITH MID LEVEL CEILINGS DEVELOPING LATE
IN THE DAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 10 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS WILL
OCCUR LATE IN THE TAF FCST PERIOD AS A 55-60 KT LOW LEVEL DEVELOPS
LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING. HAVE NOT MENTIONED LLWS AT THIS
TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MAIN JET SETTING UP JUST EAST OF
THE TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS WELL.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR
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