143
FXUS61 KILN 130531
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1231 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH
TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY, BRINGING RAIN ON WEDNESDAY THAT WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AIR IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THIS EVENING, LEADING TO SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AT
TIMES INTO TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
A STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND THIS WILL HELP BEGIN TO
CARVE OUT A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION AS WE HEAD
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO PUSH AN INITIAL COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. AS WE BEGIN TO MOISTEN UP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S
SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL
BE THE START OF A MUCH COLDER WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. RAIN IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW CHANCES AFTER FROPA. ADDITIONAL SNOW COULD
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY MAX MOVES THROUGH. WITH THIS IN MIND, LIGHT ACCUMULATING
SNOW MAY IMPACT THE THURSDAY MORNING (AROUND AND INCH OR LESS FOR
MOST LOCATIONS). COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY WHEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO
THE SOUTH ALONG WITH BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
REGION.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ON
SATURDAY. WIND CHILLS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SSW THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH SOME GUSTS INTO
THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT IN
THE EVENING, BUT SOME 15-20 KNOT GUSTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. LLWS
IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AS OF NOW.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS WELL. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HATZOS
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