527
FXUS61 KILN 130639
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
139 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, BRINGING RAIN ON WEDNESDAY THAT WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AIR IS THEN EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY AND BEYOND, WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING, WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE
SOUTH, AS DEEP TROUGHING ENVELOPES THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE IN THE DAY
TODAY. INITIALLY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA, WITH PERHAPS JUST SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. HIGHS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL,
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY, AND A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER, WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH ARE EXPECTED -- WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE ILN CWA WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE. THE FIRST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, ASSOCIATED WITH SOME UPPER FORCING,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET AT THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT WARM ON TUESDAY
NIGHT, WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ALL
BE RAIN, MAINLY FOCUSED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE ILN CWA,
WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF ONE OR TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.
AS THIS AREA OF FORCING MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY,
ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FRONT WILL REPRESENT THE LEADING EDGE OF
SOME MUCH COLDER AIR, AND AS SUCH, ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL
BE SNOW. IN FACT, WITH THE WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR AND BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT, SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP. COULD SEE
SOME SPOTTY ACCUMULATIONS AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY, BUT THESE WOULD
PROBABLY BE ISOLATED AND LIGHT -- OVERALL PROJECTIONS FOR
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE (AS MENTIONED IN THE LONG TERM
SECTION) BUT NONETHELESS, SOME IMPACTS TO THE WEDNESDAY EVENING
COMMUTE COULD BE POSSIBLE IF SNOW SHOWERS OF ANY DECENT MAGNITUDE ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP. WILL ALSO PROBABLY SEE SOME 25-30 MPH WIND GUSTS
BEHIND THE FRONT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
H5 VORT LOBE EJECTS THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
WHICH WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL.
OVERALL, MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE SHOWN A LIGHTER QPF FOOTPRINT
OVERNIGHT AND THUS HAVE REDUCED SNOW TOTALS TO GENERALLY LESS THAN
AN INCH FOR THE MAJORITY OF OUR CWA. PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN
AN INCH ARE NOW PRETTY LOW FROM THE NBM, WPC, AND THE GFS/EURO
ENSEMBLES. THE LACK OF DEEP SATURATION IN THE DGZ WILL BE ANOTHER
LIMITING FACTOR WITH SNOW AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, SLR'S WILL BE RIGHT
AROUND 20:1, SO IT WOULDN'T TAKE MUCH QPF TO PROVIDE SOME RAPID
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOWFALL.
SNOW MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY PART OF THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH
ACCUMULATING SNOW SEEMS UNLIKELY BY DAYBREAK. ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL
BEGIN TO SETTLE IN ON THURSDAY, RESULTING IN A NOTABLE DROP IN
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.
THE SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE CHAOTIC AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL, IT DOES
APPEAR THAT A LONGWAVE H5 TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIONED OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN CONUS, WHICH WILL CERTAINLY KEEP FRIGID
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. THE UNCERTAINTY PRIMARILY LIES WITH THE
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH OUR FA FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY, RESULTING IN MORE CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
DETAILS ON AMOUNTS STILL A BIT MURKY, BUT MODELS/ENSEMBLES SEEM TO
FAVOR HIGHER TOTALS WITH THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY SYSTEM COMPARED TO THE
MID-WEEK SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES DO INCREASE ON FRIDAY (ALTHOUGH LIKELY REMAIN JUST
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS) BEFORE FALLING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY, SUNDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHTS, WITH WIND CHILLS NEAR OR PERHAPS EVEN BELOW ZERO DEGREES.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SSW THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH SOME GUSTS INTO
THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT IN
THE EVENING, BUT SOME 15-20 KNOT GUSTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. LLWS
IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AS OF NOW.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS WELL. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HATZOS
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