635
FXUS61 KILN 140615
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
115 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TODAY, WITH
SOME SNOW EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND, WITH ESPECIALLY COLD CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF UPPER TROUGHING IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND VICINITY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
THE MORNING, INITIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH SOME UPPER-LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET. THIS JET
FEATURE, AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, WILL EVENTUALLY PIVOT FROM MORE
OF A WSW-TO-ENE ORIENTATION TO A SSW-NNE ORIENTATION, MEANING THAT
THE FOOTPRINT OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL LARGELY STAY SOUTH OF
THE I-71 CORRIDOR. EVEN STILL, RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT, IN
PART BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR YET TO BE OVERCOME. MANY OF THE RADAR
ECHOES CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED ARE VIRGA, AND KCVG (FOR EXAMPLE) HAS
A 22 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AS OF 1AM.
THE MORE NOTABLE FEATURE FOR THE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. BASED ON HRRR/RAP PROJECTIONS, THIS
FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE ILN CWA BETWEEN 15Z-23Z. WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST, WITH SOME 25-35 MPH GUSTS
EXPECTED. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A SPOTTY 40 MPH GUST COULD
OCCUR IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS TEMPERATURES COOL
QUICKLY, PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW, AND WILL BECOME MORE
SHOWERY THAN STRATIFORM -- WITH A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER, AND
MAYBE A VERY SMALL AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER. SO, ALTHOUGH THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY BE SCATTERED
IN NATURE, THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BRIEF
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS THAT COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY AND DROP SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS -- GENERALLY UNDER A HALF INCH. MORE WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW APPEAR UNLIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
WITH A CONTINUING COLD ADVECTION PATTERN TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING, AND A PERSISTENTLY WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER, GUSTY WINDS
AND SNOW SHOWERS / FLURRIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. FALLING TEMPERATURES, PARTICULARLY ON ROADWAYS,
COULD RESULT IN SOME HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION, WIND
CHILLS WILL GET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY MORNING AS WELL.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP ACTIVITY ENSUES THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REMAINS WEDGED BETWEEN TWO SHORTWAVES. HOWEVER, PRECIP
COULD MOVE BACK INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BASED
ON SOME MODEL GUIDANCE. THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN BELOW THE FREEZING
MARK AND THUS WILL KEEP THE P-TYPE AS SNOW. SOME WARM AIR DOES
INTRUDE OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME RAIN TO MIX IN FOR LOCATIONS NEAR/SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
OTHERWISE, PERIODS OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE MAJORITY OF OUR
COUNTIES FRIDAY, FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. CAM
GUIDANCE WILL HELP PROVIDE A BIT MORE CLARITY ON TIMING OF BEST
POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATION, AS WELL AS AMOUNTS. ACCUMULATING SNOW
DOES APPEAR LIKELY FOR THE MAJORITY OF OUR CWA, BUT RIGHT NOW IT
DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE ANYTHING SUBSTANTIAL (LOW PROBABILITIES FOR
ANYTHING GREATER THAN 3"). BEST PROBABILITY FOR AN INCH OR GREATER
WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA, BUT STILL TOO EARLY TO GET
INTO EXACT TOTALS.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW LONG SNOW MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY.
AFTER TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY MODERATE ON FRIDAY, THEY TAKE A DIVE
AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS HIGHS GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 20S.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A LONGWAVE H5 TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. SOME SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT THROUGH
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO HELP MAINTAIN IT. THESE SHORTWAVES MAY ALSO
RESULT IN EPISODIC CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW, BUT THOSE DETAILS ARE
STILL UNKNOWN. WHAT IS KNOWN IS THAT WE WILL HAVE SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS STRETCH, WITH LOWS EITHER REACHING OR
APPROACHING THE SINGLE DIGITS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARDS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR OR BELOW ZERO DURING THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR A NUMBER OF DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE TO START THE TAF PERIOD, BUT THIS WILL
NOT LAST VERY LONG. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH CEILINGS EVENTUALLY FALLING BELOW
2KFT. MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN
COULD OCCUR, BUT THIS HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF MOST OF THE TAF SITES, AS
IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT BE IMPACTFUL. -RA WAS INCLUDED AT
KCMH/KLCK FOR A FEW HOURS WHERE THIS SEEMED A LITTLE MORE LIKELY TO
OCCUR.
DURING THE AFTERNOON, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA,
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NW AND BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
WHERE SNOW SHOWERS OCCUR, MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. NW WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT, AND THEN WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE 20 KNOTS WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CEILINGS MAY BREAK TO VFR DURING THE EVENING AT SOME
LOCATIONS, BUT OVERALL, MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GUSTY WINDS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HATZOS
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