624
FXUS61 KILN 150019
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
719 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026
SYNOPSIS
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT, MUCH COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
THURSDAY AND BEYOND, WITH ESPECIALLY COLD CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AS ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WITH DROPPING AIR
AND PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES, ANY BURSTS OF SNOW WILL LEAVE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION WHICH MAY RESULT IN SLICK SPOTS.
WIND GUSTS WILL COME DOWN JUST A BIT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES BUT
STILL REMAIN GUSTY ALL NIGHT. THE WIND COMBINED WITH AIR TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE TEENS WILL RESULT IN SINGLE DIGIT APPARENT
TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THROUGHOUT
THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY, BUT EVENTUALLY THE MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE
EAST AS A BRIEF RIDGE BUILDS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE CHILLY DURING THE DAY (ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL) AS THE COLD AIR MASS PERSISTS.
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING,
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWERS. WITH THIS BEING A WARM AIR ADVECTION SETUP, THERMAL PROFILES
DO NOT FAVOR EFFICIENT SNOW RATES, LIKELY LEADING TO SMALL SNOWFLAKE
SIZES. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE PRECEDING 24
HOURS, EVEN LIGHT SNOW A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH COULD LEAD TO IMPACTS
TO THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME
IS THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THE LIGHT SNOW GIVEN THE ATYPICAL SNOW
GENERATION PATTERN. FOR NOW, WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE CHANCES FOR
SNOW ACROSS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE HWO.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
PERSISTENT LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL REMAIN POSITIONED WELL OFF THE U.S.
EAST COAST WITH A DIGGING TROUGH AXIS FROM THE GREAT LAKES BACK
THOUGH THE MIDWEST. DESPITE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY, SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR MIDDLE JANUARY
NORMAL VALUES.
THE INITIAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
WILL AFFECT OUR CWA ON FRIDAY, OFFERING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS.
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE DUE TO LIGHT QPF (LESS THAN
A TENTH) AS WELL AS THE SNOW FALLING DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY, WITH A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHIFTING THROUGH OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
MORE LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED... HOWEVER THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE
THE ARCTIC AIR FOLLOWING BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
REACH 20 DEGREES ON SUNDAY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR 10 DEGREES FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.
THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR ZERO WITH WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES AS LOW
AS -5 TO -15. EXACT VALUES WILL DEPEND OF THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING WE
SEE AND ALSO HOW MUCH SNOW IS ON THE GROUND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF
COLD CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MAY
BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF REDUCED VISIBILITY, POSSIBLY TO IFR. AFTER
02Z-03Z, ANY LINGERING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT WITH NO
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY MVFR, ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE A FEW TEMPORARY BREAKS TO START. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A BIGGER
BREAK IN THE LOWER CEILINGS WILL CROSS THE REGION BETWEEN AROUND 03Z
AND 08Z EXCEPT AT KCMH/KLCK WHERE MVFR SHOULD PERSIST. BUT THEN MVFR
CEILINGS WILL SETTLE IN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE BUT SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
PERIOD. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY, BUT
CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND SCATTER OUT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KT
ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...MCGINNIS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page