514
FXUS61 KILN 151353
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
853 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
SYNOPSIS
A COLD WEATHER PERIOD CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE COLDEST CONDITIONS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SNOW SHOWERS WILL END THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
MORNING UPDATE...
GIVEN THE LINGERING BANDED SNOWFALL ACROSS A PORTION OF THE LARGER
ADVISED AREA, ONLY PART OF THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL
NOON. THE EXTENSION IS FOR AREAS GENERALLY FROM THE DAYTON METRO AREA
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN OHIO. LOCATIONS ON THE NORTH AND SOUTH SIDE
OF THE ADVISORY ARE SET TO EXPIRE AT 9AM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (1:45 AM)...
DEEP MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN OHIO TO
MIGRATE EAST THIS MORNING AND THEN NORTHEAST THRU THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. WITH
COLD PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES, ANY BURSTS OF SNOW WILL LEAVE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION WHICH MAY RESULT IN SLICK SPOTS. AFTER SUNRISE CAN NOT
RULE OUT SOME LINGERING SNOW FLURRIES THRU THE MORNING.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH EARLY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THRU
THE DAY BUT STILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE WIND COMBINED
WITH AIR TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS WILL RESULT IN SINGLE
DIGIT APPARENT TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING
ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO BRIEFLY GIVE WAY TO CLEAR. ATTENTION SHIFTS TO
THE NEXT LOW DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW
WILL DEVELOP IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. EXPECT SNOW TOTAL THRU FRIDAY TO GENERALLY BE
LESS THAN AN INCH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH.
ALTHOUGH THE SNOW WILL BE LIGHT - GIVEN THE COLD GROUND TEMPERATURES
EVEN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH COULD LEAD TO IMPACTS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE CHANCES FOR SNOW ACROSS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE HWO.
LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER TEENS RISE TO HIGHS
BETWEEN 35 AND 40 ON FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE MAIN STORY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS GOING TO BE THE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES/ WIND CHILLS. DEEP LONGWAVE
TROUGHING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND GREAT LAKES REGION AND SUBSEQUENT
SHORTWAVES WILL BRING A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS DOWN INTO THE
REGION. IN FACT, BY SATURDAY NIGHT, WE'LL ENTER A PERIOD WHERE
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACH THE TEENS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WHEN WE FACTOR IN THE WIND, WIND CHILLS
WILL BE IN THE NEGATIVES TO AROUND ZERO DEGREES BETWEEN SATURDAY
NIGHT ALL THE WAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NOW IS THE TIME TO PLAN FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF EXTREME COLD BY INSPECTING YOUR RESIDENCE,
VEHICLE, AND HAVE PLANS IN PLACE FOR OUTDOOR LIVESTOCK.
LOOKING AT PRECIPITATION CHANCES, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE LARGER TROUGH WILL KEEP SNOW CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
THE FIRST VORT LOBE WILL SWING DOWN THROUGH THE LARGER FLOW FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, INTRODUCING EPISODIC SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. EXACT PLACEMENT OF SNOW IS A BIT TRICKY AT
THIS TIME AS THERE IS CURRENTLY NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR ANY DEEP,
IMPACTFUL ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER, WITH BROAD SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER, THERE IS PLENTY OF ENERGY AND LIFT TO GO AROUND AND ANTICIPATE
THAT MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SMALL ACCUMULATIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ANOTHER SHOT OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION, CONTINUING THE PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS. THERE IS SOME
SIGNAL FOR MORE IMPACTFUL SNOW TO OUR SOUTH (MORESO THROUGH
KENTUCKY), THOUGH GUIDANCE STILL QUITE HASN'T NAILED THIS DOWN YET.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK, ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW, BUT SNOWFALL LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOSER TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND WE DRY OUT.
AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW TO TRACK THE EAST AND THEN EAST-NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS
FEATURE COMBINED WITH ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WAS RESULTING IN
PERSISTENT BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE BIGGEST IMPACTS AT KDAY
AND KILN. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS WITH SNOW SHOWERS DROPPING VSBYS AND
CEILINGS INTO THE IFR CATEGORY FOR BRIEF PERIODS EARLY.
THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND SHIFT EAST
WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING FLURRIES THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS WITH 40-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING OVER
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE A MENTION OF SNOW WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
REDEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE BUT SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE DAY AND THEN BACK TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KT
ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM EST FOR
OHZ051-053-061>063-072>073-080-082-088.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...MCGINNIS/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...AR
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