269
FXUS61 KILN 160029
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
729 PM EST THU JAN 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS EXPIRED AT NOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. CHANCES OF GREATER THAN ONE INCH OF TOTAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION ARE HIGHEST (40-50%) ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL,
SOUTHWEST, AND SOUTHERN OHIO.
2) BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OCCURRING TUESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A LARGE LUMBERING TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WILL
PROVIDE SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WHILE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED, THE EXACT TIMING AND DURATION OF THE SNOWFALL
COULD LEAD TO IMPACTS ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL, EACH SCENARIO IS LOW
IN CONFIDENCE, WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SHORT TERM CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
TONIGHT: THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING WITHIN A
STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGION SUPPORTS UPWARD MOTION. GIVEN
THE COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE TODAY, THE BROAD TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS
WILL STILL SUPPORT SNOW, EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE SURFACE
WILL BE INCREASING. BATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN
INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO BETWEEN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING (5AM) AND LATE
MORNING (11AM). LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL HELP TO LIMIT SATURATION OF
THE SNOWFALL TO THE SURFACE, BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIFT WITHIN THE DGZ, SUPPORTING LARGER SNOWFLAKE SIZE.
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE FOR A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH TO FALL WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE CURRENTLY PLACED
ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO. WITH THE ANTECEDENT COLD
CONDITIONS, SOME CHALLENGING TRAVEL COULD DEVELOP WHERE THIS SNOW
ACCUMULATES.
FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT: THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER IN THE
EVENING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WITH THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
LEAD TO CHALLENGING TRAVEL WHEREVER THE SNOW SHOWERS OCCUR. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT MORE FAVORABLE
JET ENERGY MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY,
PROVIDING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE SUSTAINED PRECIPITATION. DUE TO
WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON, RAIN-SNOW MIX MAY
PREVAIL BEFORE EITHER DYNAMIC COOLING COOLS THE COLUMN IN THE HEAVIER
RATES OR COLDER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST, SUPPORTING ALL SNOW.
ONCE AGAIN, GIVEN THE PRECIPITATION TYPE COMPLEXITIES AND THE LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE BAND, CONFIDENCE ON IMPACTS TO
THIS AREA IS LOW.
SATURDAY: FINALLY, ANOTHER WAVE OF ENERGY ARRIVES WITHIN THE LARGE
TROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WOULD PROVIDE THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AREA WIDE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE LARGE LUMBERING TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND, BUT A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPLY A
PERIOD OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SPANNING FROM SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL SEE THE COLDEST
CONDITIONS DUE TO THE STRONGER WINDS, BUT THE WHOLE AREA SHOULD
EXPECT MULTIPLE DAYS OF SINGLE DIGIT FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES. COLD
WEATHER HEADLINES ARE MOST LIKELY FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING WITH VALUES BETWEEN -10 AND -15 ACROSS THE NORTH AND 0 TO -10
ACROSS THE SOUTH. AT THAT TIME FRAME, NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WITH VALUES NEAR 0 FROM DAYTON TO COLUMBUS AND
NORTHWARD. THIS PERIOD OF COLD TEMPERATURES REMAINS HIGHLIGHTED IN
THE HWO.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SNOW FLURRIES WILL TAPER OFF AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. MID CLOUDS
WILL BE EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH DURING PRIMARILY THE DAYTIME MORNING HOURS. SOME LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE. WINDS WILL PICK UP FOR THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON FRIDAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. ADDITIONAL
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY,
HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCE WILL BE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
CIGS WILL START TO LOWER AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY.
VSBYS AND CIGS WILL BE REDUCED WITH SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCGINNIS
AVIATION...
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