095
FXUS61 KILN 160645
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
145 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR SNOW TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ALSO, BUMPED
UP SNOW AMOUNTS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS
MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY. CHANCES OF GREATER THAN ONE INCH OF TOTAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION ARE HIGHEST (>70%) ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL,
SOUTHWEST, AND SOUTHERN OHIO.
2) BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OCCURRING TUESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LEAD MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE MID MS
VALLEY THRU THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE UPPER
MS VALLEY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE THIS
MORNING TOWARD SUNRISE. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL HELP TO LIMIT
SATURATION OF THE SNOWFALL TO THE SURFACE, BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFT WITHIN THE DGZ, SUPPORTING MORE
EFFICIENT ACCUMULATION. EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF SEVERAL TENTHS
OF AN INCH WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL INDIANA
AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO. THIS COULD LEAD TO SLICK SPOTS FOR THE MORNING
COMMUTE. ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS ACCUMULATION
LOOKS TO A HALF INCH OR LESS.
FOCUS SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF DIGGING MID LEVEL TROF. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT ARRIVES LATER IN THE EVENING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WITH
THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD LEAD TO CHALLENGING TRAVEL WHEREVER THE SNOW
SHOWERS OCCUR. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE. THERE IS
SOME INCREASED CONFIDENCE THAT THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE LOOKS TO
OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-71. THIS SNOW LOOKS TO BE IN TWO
ENHANCED PERIODS - THE FIRST LATER TONIGHT AND A SECOND MORE LIMITED
IN COVERAGE BUT HAVING THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER SNOW RATES SATURDAY.
PROBABILITIES OF AN INCH OR MORE HAVE INCREASED TO GREATER THAN 70
PERCENT LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HAVE INCREASED
POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS WITH GENERALLY A 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNT THRU THIS
PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
WILL BE IN PLACE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DEEP LONGWAVE
TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN CONUS AND VARIOUS SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR DOWN TO THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION.
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SHOULD EXPECT SEVERAL DAYS OF SINGLE DIGIT
WIND CHILLS/ FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES DURING BOTH DAYTIME HOURS AND
OVERNIGHT. THE COLDEST PERIOD WITHIN THIS STRETCH WILL BE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AND WE WILL LIKELY NEED COLD WEATHER HEADLINES AT SOME
POINT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. FOR NWS ILN HEADLINE CRITERIA, VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ILN/CRITERIA-WINTER.
MONDAY DAYTIME WIND CHILLS ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO
AROUND 0 ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70, WITH WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -10 FOR
AREAS NORTH. AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY NIGHT, THE COLD INTENSIFIES,
WITH WIND CHILLS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF OHIO
AND INDIANA, WITH -5 EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY. AMBIENT AIR
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME FALL TO AROUND 0-5 DEGREES AREA WIDE.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY, RISING INTO THE TEENS AND
20S DURING THE DAY AND FALLING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
OVERNIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY, THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH FLATTENS OUT A BIT
AND WE BEGIN WARM AIR ADVECTING AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES TEMPERATURES RISE SUBSTANTIALLY TO THE 30S/40S.
NOW IS THE TIME TO PLAN FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF EXTREME COLD BY
INSPECTING YOUR RESIDENCE, VEHICLE, AND HAVE PLANS IN PLACE FOR
OUTDOOR LIVESTOCK. FOR INFORMATION ON HOW TO PREPARE YOURSELF, YOUR
HOME, AND YOUR CAR FOR EXTREME COLD, VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SAFETY/COLD-BEFORE.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MAY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SNOW AROUND SUNRISE BUT
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL LOW CHANCE THREAT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OCCURS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED CHANCE FOR SNOW TONIGHT. CEILINGS DROP TO
MVFR THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS IN
SNOW OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 KTS OR LESS INCREASE TODAY WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 KNOTS. SOUTHWEST WINDS LOSE THE GUSTINESS THIS EVENING AT 10 KTS
OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS SATURDAY AND 25-30 KTS MONDAY.
VSBYS AND CIGS WILL BE REDUCED TO IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR/CA
AVIATION...AR
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