170
FXUS61 KILN 170053
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
753 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND SNOWFALL FOR SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 71. SNOW,
ALONG WITH COOLING PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES, ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
SLIPPERY ROADS.
2) SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN SUDDEN DROPS IN VISIBILITY, ALONG WITH A QUICK
COATING OF SNOW.
3) BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OCCURRING MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
GUIDANCE THIS MORNING HAS TRENDED COLDER AND WETTER AS LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES PUSHES A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. A DISTURBANCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING
A SURGE IN MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION INTO OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES STARTING LATE THIS EVENING. THE CHALLENGE WITH THIS FORECAST
IS PRECIPITATION TYPE. ALOFT, THE COLUMN WILL BE BELOW FREEZING, WITH
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES LIMITED TO THE LOWEST
THOUSAND FEET OR SO. DESPITE THIS MARGINAL THERMAL ENVIRONMENT, WE
EXPECT DYNAMIC COOLING WILL PLAY A ROLE IN SHIFTING US TOWARD A
SNOWIER SOLUTION. THE MOST UNCERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. HAVE ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR
HIGHER CONFIDENCE AREAS, WITH A LATER WESTWARD EXPANSION AS A
POSSIBILITY AS WE FOCUS IN ON SPATIAL COVERAGE OF THE SNOW. AMOUNTS
WILL RANGE FROM ONE TO THREE INCHES WHERE THE HIGHEST QPF RESIDES IN
THE SOUTHEAST... WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ALONG THE BACK EDGE ALONG THE
I-71 CORRIDOR.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL HAVE ENDED BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING,
A STRONGER, SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED COOLER AIR IS
STILL MOVING THROUGH ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSISTS
SURFACE WARMING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT, HOWEVER, COLDER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT STEEPENS LAPSE
RATES, SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE LATE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY BUT LOCALLY,
REDUCED VISIBILITY AND QUICK COATINGS OF SNOW MAY RESULT IN
CHALLENGING TRAVEL CONDITIONS. THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN A LENGTHY PERIOD OF BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES STRETCHING FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.
THE INITIAL SURGE OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WITH A LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS SUNDAY
MORNING, COMBINED WITH 10 TO 15 MPH WINDS, PRODUCE WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO ZERO ACROSS THE AREA. A SECONDARY,
REINFORCING SURGE OF BITTERLY COLD AIR ARRIVES BEHIND ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE AIR MASS
ARRIVING DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB EVEN A COUPLE OF DEGREES DURING THE DAY. WIND CHILL VALUES ARE
NEAR ZERO TO BELOW ZERO AREA WIDE WITH THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS
BETWEEN -10 AND -15 MONDAY EVENING. THE LACK OF WARMING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON MONDAY SETS THE STAGE FOR THE COLDEST PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO ARE FORECAST AREA WIDE
WITH MUCH OF THE AREA SEEING ANYWHERE FROM -10 TO -20. FOR NWS ILN
HEADLINE CRITERIA, VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ILN/CRITERIA-WINTER.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT WHILE THE COLDEST VALUES MAY ARRIVE
TUESDAY MORNING, THE WINDS ARE STRONGEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH 25 TO 35 MPH WIND GUSTS. TEMPERATURES REBOUND BRIEFLY
ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
NOW IS THE TIME TO PLAN FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF EXTREME COLD BY
INSPECTING YOUR RESIDENCE, VEHICLE, AND HAVE PLANS IN PLACE FOR
OUTDOOR LIVESTOCK. FOR INFORMATION ON HOW TO PREPARE YOURSELF, YOUR
HOME, AND YOUR CAR FOR EXTREME COLD, VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SAFETY/COLD-BEFORE.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. EXPECT IT TO
BECOME MORE CELLULAR IN NATURE OVERNIGHT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN TAF
SITES. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS ON SATURDAY. TIMED IN
VSBY RESTRICTIONS WITH SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. CIGS WILL
LOWER OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WIND
GUSTS WILL BE PRESENT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...WINDS MAY GUST TO 30 KTS MONDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ064-065-073-
074-079>082-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR KYZ094>100.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
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