432
FXUS61 KILN 170632
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
132 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND SNOW FOR TODAY AND ADJUSTED
HOURLY TEMPERATURES COLDER THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 71. SNOW, ALONG WITH COOLING PAVEMENT
TEMPERATURES, MAY RESULT IN SLIPPERY SPOTS ON ROADS.
2) SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN SUDDEN DROPS IN VISIBILITY, ALONG WITH A QUICK
COATING OF SNOW.
3) BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OCCURRING MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ELONGATED MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OBSERVED FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY
THRU THE GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WAS RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-71. PAVEMENT AND
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL - SO THEREFORE LIMITING
IMPACTS ON AREA ROADS. HAVE GENERALLY INCREASED POPS OVER NBM
SOLUTION AND ALLOWED THIS WIDESPREAD PCPN TO EXIT THE EAST BETWEEN
10-12Z. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION PRIOR TO ENDING LOOKS TO BE AROUND AN
INCH. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS REMAIN UNCHANGED AND WILL
EXPIRE AT 12Z.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WESTERN PORTION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS SOUTHEAST THRU THE
MID MS VALLEY TODAY AND INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. A STRONG
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT STEEPENS LAPSE RATES,
SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE LATE MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY BUT LOCALLY, REDUCED VISIBILITY AND
QUICK COATINGS OF SNOW MAY RESULT IN CHALLENGING TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
HAVE GENERAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS. HAVE INCREASED POPS
AND SNOWFALL OVER NBM SOLUTION. MODEL SIGNAL SUGGESTS A BETTER THREAT
FOR SNOW SQUALLS EAST OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MONITOR
RADAR/MODEL TRENDS FOR IMPACTS IN ILN/S EASTERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
WILL BE IN PLACE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, AS A
DEEP LONGWAVE AND SUBSEQUENT SHORTWAVES BRING REINFORCING SHOTS OF
COLD AIR TO THE REGION.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT, BRINGING
THE INITIAL SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. TONIGHT'S LOW
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALL TO THE TEENS AND EVEN SINGLE DIGITS IN
SPOTS. WITH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE, FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES
FALL TO NEAR ZERO AND EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-70.
QUICK EDUCATION BREAK HERE: AS A REMINDER, FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES
(ALSO KNOWN AS WIND CHILL THIS TIME OF YEAR) TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE
EFFECTS OF WIND AND TEMPERATURES ON THE BODY. THIS MEASUREMENT
AFFECTS BOTH PEOPLE AND ANIMALS/LIVESTOCK. WHEN WIND IS FACTORED IN,
PEOPLE AND ANIMALS LOSE HEAT FASTER, WHICH CAN INCREASE FROSTBITE
AND HYPOTHERMIA RISKS, AS WELL AS ADDED STRESS ON THE BODY. TO LEARN
ABOUT THE WARNING SIGNS OF HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE AS WELL AS HOW
TO PROTECT YOUR LIVESTOCK AND PETS, VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SAFETY/COLD.
OK, BACK TO THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES DO FOLLOW A SUBTLE DIURNAL
TREND ON SUNDAY, BUT HIGHS ONLY REACH THE 20S. WHEN WE FACTOR IN
SOME BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS, GUSTING TO AROUND 25 MPH AT TIMES,
THOSE DAYTIME FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ALL DAY LONG. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL ONCE AGAIN TO THE TEENS WITH FEELS LIKE
FALLING TO SINGLE DIGITS.
WITH THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT PRESENT FROM THE SHORTWAVE,
WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 MPH DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN FEELS LIKE
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -5 AND -10 ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 AND AROUND 0-
5 DEGREES FOR AREAS SOUTH, DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. COLD WEATHER
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY END UP BEING NEEDED. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD, WITH LOWS AROUND
ZERO AND FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -10 AND -15 FOR AREAS ALONG
THE NORTH OF I-70, WITH 0 TO -5 DEGREES FOR AREAS SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY, RISING INTO THE TEENS/20S
DURING THE DAY AND FALLING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT. BY
WEDNESDAY, THE TROUGH FLATTENS OUT A BIT AND WE BEGIN WARM AIR
ADVECTING AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SYSTEM.
NOW IS THE TIME TO PLAN FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF EXTREME COLD BY
INSPECTING YOUR RESIDENCE, VEHICLE, AND HAVE PLANS IN PLACE FOR
OUTDOOR LIVESTOCK. FOR INFORMATION ON HOW TO PREPARE YOURSELF, YOUR
HOME, AND YOUR CAR FOR EXTREME COLD, VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SAFETY/COLD-BEFORE.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SYSTEM MOVING THRU ILN/S EASTERN COUNTIES WILL BRING SNOW WITH IFR
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SNOW SHIFTS
EAST AND DIMINISHES BETWEEN 10-12Z. EXPECT LINGERING IFR CEILINGS
FOR A PERIOD THIS MORNING, WHICH LIFT TO MVFR EARLY AND EVENTUALLY
VFR THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA LATE MORNING THRU AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR OR LIFR WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN ANY SNOW SHOWER TODAY. DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE HAVE
KEPT FORECAST DURING SNOW SHOWERS IN MVFR CATEGORY.
WESTERLY WIND GUST TO 20-25 KTS TODAY AND THEN DIMINISH TO 10 KTS OR
LESS TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 30 KTS MONDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ064-065-
073-074-079>082-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ094>100.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR/CA
AVIATION...AR
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