005
FXUS61 KILN 171133
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
633 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CANCELLED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS TODAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN
SUDDEN DROPS IN VISIBILITY, ALONG WITH A QUICK COATING OF SNOW.
2) BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OCCURRING MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DIG SOUTHEAST THRU THE MID MS VALLEY
TODAY AND INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. A STRONG SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT STEEPENS LAPSE RATES, SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
AREA. WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY
BUT LOCALLY, REDUCED VISIBILITY AND QUICK COATINGS OF SNOW MAY RESULT
IN CHALLENGING TRAVEL CONDITIONS. HAVE GENERAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN
INCH OR LESS. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND SNOWFALL OVER NBM SOLUTION.
MODEL SIGNAL SUGGESTS A BETTER THREAT FOR SNOW SQUALLS EAST OF OUR
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MONITOR RADAR/MODEL TRENDS FOR IMPACTS IN
ILN/S EASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
WILL BE IN PLACE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, AS A
DEEP LONGWAVE AND SUBSEQUENT SHORTWAVES BRING REINFORCING SHOTS OF
COLD AIR TO THE REGION.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT, BRINGING
THE INITIAL SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. TONIGHT'S LOW
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALL TO THE TEENS AND EVEN SINGLE DIGITS IN
SPOTS. WITH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE, FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES
FALL TO NEAR ZERO AND EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-70.
QUICK EDUCATION BREAK HERE: AS A REMINDER, FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES
(ALSO KNOWN AS WIND CHILL THIS TIME OF YEAR) TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE
EFFECTS OF WIND AND TEMPERATURES ON THE BODY. THIS MEASUREMENT
AFFECTS BOTH PEOPLE AND ANIMALS/LIVESTOCK. WHEN WIND IS FACTORED IN,
PEOPLE AND ANIMALS LOSE HEAT FASTER, WHICH CAN INCREASE FROSTBITE
AND HYPOTHERMIA RISKS, AS WELL AS ADDED STRESS ON THE BODY. TO LEARN
ABOUT THE WARNING SIGNS OF HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE AS WELL AS HOW
TO PROTECT YOUR LIVESTOCK AND PETS, VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SAFETY/COLD.
OK, BACK TO THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES DO FOLLOW A SUBTLE DIURNAL
TREND ON SUNDAY, BUT HIGHS ONLY REACH THE 20S. WHEN WE FACTOR IN
SOME BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS, GUSTING TO AROUND 25 MPH AT TIMES,
THOSE DAYTIME FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ALL DAY LONG. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL ONCE AGAIN TO THE TEENS WITH FEELS LIKE
FALLING TO SINGLE DIGITS.
WITH THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT PRESENT FROM THE SHORTWAVE,
WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 MPH DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN FEELS LIKE
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -5 AND -10 ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 AND AROUND 0-
5 DEGREES FOR AREAS SOUTH, DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. COLD WEATHER
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY END UP BEING NEEDED. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD, WITH LOWS AROUND
ZERO AND FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -10 AND -15 FOR AREAS ALONG
THE NORTH OF I-70, WITH 0 TO -5 DEGREES FOR AREAS SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY, RISING INTO THE TEENS/20S
DURING THE DAY AND FALLING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT. BY
WEDNESDAY, THE TROUGH FLATTENS OUT A BIT AND WE BEGIN WARM AIR
ADVECTING AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SYSTEM.
NOW IS THE TIME TO PLAN FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF EXTREME COLD BY
INSPECTING YOUR RESIDENCE, VEHICLE, AND HAVE PLANS IN PLACE FOR
OUTDOOR LIVESTOCK. FOR INFORMATION ON HOW TO PREPARE YOURSELF, YOUR
HOME, AND YOUR CAR FOR EXTREME COLD, VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SAFETY/COLD-BEFORE.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME PATCHY IFR CEILINGS OBSERVED
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DIG
SOUTHEAST THRU THE MID MS VALLEY TODAY AND INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT. A STRONG SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE
AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT STEEPENS LAPSE
RATES, SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
MVFR CEILINGS LIFT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATE MORNING THRU AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
DIGGING TROF. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR OR LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
SNOW SHOWER TODAY. DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE AND UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT
FORECAST DURING SNOW SHOWERS IN MVFR CATEGORY. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHIFTS EAST OF THE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS GUST TO 20-25 KTS
TODAY AND THEN DIMINISH TO 10 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 30 KTS MONDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR/CA
AVIATION...AR
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