082
FXUS61 KILN 181129
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
629 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS FOR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST TOTAL ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A
PERIOD OF BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON CHANCES FOR FROZEN
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OCCURRING MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.
2) CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION REMAIN IN THE FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN INITIAL SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AREA WIDE. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW NORMAL WILL BE OBSERVED. WHILE THESE
READINGS WILL BE VERY COLD, THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE NOT QUITE AS
COLD AS PREVIOUS RUNS.
BEHIND THE FRONT, COLD AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY, WITH
WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE TEENS DURING THE DAY. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES DROP TO LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS BY TUESDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS ARE FORECAST TO
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 BY THE
MONDAY AFTERNOON REACHING WIDESPREAD LOWS OF 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO
MONDAY NIGHT. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT THERE IS A 40 TO 50 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT WIND CHILLS DROP TO -10 OR BELOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
WIND CHILLS SOUTH OF I-70 ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER, WITH COLDEST WIND
CHILLS DROPPING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO MONDAY NIGHT. THESE
VALUES APPROACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED COLD WEATHER ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH SOME
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES. HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTH
TO THE MID 20S SOUTH. VERY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES WARM INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BY AFTERNOON WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOME CONTINUED MODERATION TO TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS TEMPERATURES ONE AGAIN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR REINFORCING
COLD AIR NEXT WEEKEND. SOME OF THE MODEL SIGNALS SUGGEST THAT
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES COULD EXCEED 20 DEGREES - BUT THERE IS A LARGE
SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW.
TO LEARN ABOUT THE WARNING SIGNS OF HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE
AS WELL AS HOW TO PROTECT YOUR LIVESTOCK AND PETS, VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SAFETY/COLD.
NOW IS THE TIME TO PLAN FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF EXTREME COLD BY
INSPECTING YOUR RESIDENCE, VEHICLE, AND HAVE PLANS IN PLACE FOR
OUTDOOR LIVESTOCK. FOR INFORMATION ON HOW TO PREPARE YOURSELF, YOUR
HOME, AND YOUR CAR FOR EXTREME COLD, VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SAFETY/COLD-BEFORE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND SATURATION THROUGH THE
DGZ WILL PROMOTE SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE WAVE. THE SYSTEM IS QUICK
MOVING AND SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE AROUND AN INCH OR LESS,
PERHAPS UP TO TWO INCHES FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. WORTH
NOTING THAT WITH THE BITTER COLD, SLRS WILL BE 18-20:1 AND SNOW
SHOULD BE PRETTY FLUFFY. EVEN WITH LOWER ACCUMULATIONS, IT'S
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT SNOW WILL FALL SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE, WHICH
MAY CAUSE IMPACTS TO THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN MUDDLED REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BEYOND MID WEEK. A BRIEF WARM UP WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMALS BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH THE FIRST OF TWO QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVES. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE,
THERMAL PROFILES, AND TIMING BETWEEN EXTENDED ENSEMBLES LEND TO VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION TYPE/PLACEMENT AT THIS JUNCTION. SO,
FOR NOW, HAVE MAINTAINED THE BLEND WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX SCENARIO
MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A SURFACE TROF THAT NEAR THE
I-71 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KILN/KCMH AND
KLCK EARLY WITH SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN INCH OF FLUFFY SNOW. AS THIS
PIVOTS EAST EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING WITH MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING AFTER 02Z FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS TOWARD SUNRISE AS THE ARCTIC FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE THRU THE
TAF SITES.
WESTERLY WINDS AT 10 KTS OR LESS BACK SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY, THEN
BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 KTS LATE NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 30 KTS MONDAY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA/AR
AVIATION...AR
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