252
FXUS61 KILN 181844
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
144 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN INDIANA, WESTERN
AND CENTRAL OHIO.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OCCURRING MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.
2) LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXACT DETAILS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE INITIAL ROUND OF SNOWFALL. THE
COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A VERY COLD AIR MASS, WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE TEENS AND 20S FALLING INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN THE SAME THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BUT
THEY MAY EVEN DROP A FEW DEGREES ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA.
WINDS ARE STRONGEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, GENERALLY FROM 6AM TO
3PM BEFORE GRADUALLY RELAXING SOME INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN
25 AND 35 MPH. A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH THAT COLD WEATHER ADVISORY THRESHOLDS (-10
DEGREE WIND CHILL) WILL BE MET THAT AN ADVISORY WAS ISSUED STARTING
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS ADVISORY IS FOR PORTIONS
OF EASTERN INDIANA THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR, INCLUDING DAYTON AND
COLUMBUS METRO AREAS. THE REST OF THE CWA OUTSIDE OF THE INITIAL
ADVISORY WILL STILL SEE CONSIDERABLE COLD TOO, BUT AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES, IT WAS DECIDED TO WAIT
UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON THE COLDER VALUES. AN EXPANSION OF THE
ADVISORY SOUTHWARD IS POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY FOR THE PERIOD OF MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WITH WINDS DECREASING INTO
MONDAY EVENING, WIND CHILL SPECIFIC VALUES MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH.
TO LEARN ABOUT THE WARNING SIGNS OF HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE
AS WELL AS HOW TO PROTECT YOUR LIVESTOCK AND PETS, VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SAFETY/COLD.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE LATE TUESDAY MORNING, LIKELY ENDING THE PERIOD
OF DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT: THE WELL ADVERTISED REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD
AIR IS ARRIVING BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, THE TROUGH DRIVING THE AIR MASS
CHANGE WILL PROVIDE A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE THIS
EVENING AND INTO MONDAY MORNING, BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AFTER
DAYBREAK. GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT, SNOW RATIOS ARE VERY
HIGH (18-20:1) SO EVEN LIGHT QPF WILL PRODUCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO
AND POTENTIALLY OVER AN INCH. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 20S, AND LACK
OF SOLAR INSOLATION, SUPPORT ACCUMULATION ON AREA ROADWAYS SO AN SPS
WILL COVER THIS POTENTIAL FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
ADDITIONAL SNOW, ALTHOUGH MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE, IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
THE MORE CONCERNING THING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WILL BE
THE SURGE OF COLDER AIR AND STRONGER WINDS. MUCH OF THE AREA DOES NOT
HAVE MUCH SNOW ON THE GROUND, BUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST- CENTRAL
OHIO THERE IS AT LEAST AN INCH OR SO. WITH THE SNOW DURING THE EARLY
MORNING AND ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE MORNING,
BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BE EXPECTED IN THE MORE RURAL, WIND EXPOSED
AREAS. GIVEN THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES, THIS WOULD LIKELY LAST THE
ENTIRE DAY OR UNTIL WINDS RELAX LATER IN THE EVENING. THE GOOD NEWS
IS THAT OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
LATER IN THE WEEK: ON THURSDAY A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST
OF I-71. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR IMPACTS AND PRECIPITATION TYPE COULD
BE TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A MODERATE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THERMAL PROFILES THIS FAR OUT AS THE AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT
HAVE A GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS. A MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEM WOULD ALLOW
MORE WARM AIR INTO THE REGION AND LESS SNOW WHILE A LESS AMPLIFIED
SHORTWAVE WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO SNOW BEING FAVORED.
ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. DETAILS
REGARDING THIS SYSTEM ARE EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN AS SOME MODELS DEPICT
WIDESPREAD SNOW IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRONG JET STREAK WHILE
OTHER MODELS INDICATE WAA ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN ARCTIC HIGH. THE
COLDER, SNOW SCENARIO APPEARS MORE LIKELY GIVEN STRONG ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT FOR COLD ANOMALIES BEING CENTERED OVER THE REGION INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THERE ARE SOME LINGERING
MVFR CIGS DRIFTING AROUND THE AREA SO WHILE VFR HAS BEEN ADVERTISED
IN THE TAFS, SOME MVFR CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. WINDS ARE AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY.
OTHERWISE, ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA
OF 00Z MONDAY. A PERIOD OF SNOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH FROM 03-
09Z, FOLLOWED BY OFF AND ON SNOW AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM
09Z-15Z. SOME PREVAILING SNOW GROUPS HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR NORTHERN
TAF SITES (DAY/CMH/LCK) WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST. STUCK TO PROB30S
FOR MUCH OF THE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR LOWER MVFR
CIGS.
WHILE SOME LINGERING SNOW CONTINUES UNTIL 16Z, THE MAIN STORY WILL
BE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND THE ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN WESTERLY
WINDS. WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25
AND 30 KNOTS. GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR
DAY/ILN/CMH/LCK.
GRADUALLY HAVE MVFR CIGS PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST (CVG/LUK
FIRST), BUT THEY MAY OCCUR OUTSIDE THE TAF PERIOD FOR
DAY/ILN/CMH/LCK. WINDS WILL RELAX AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>062.
KY...NONE.
IN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
INZ050-058-059.
DISCUSSION...CAMPBELL/MCGINNIS
AVIATION...MCGINNIS
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