609
FXUS61 KILN 191119
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
619 AM EST MON JAN 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST INDIANA,
SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OCCURRING TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
2)LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
3) ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
FORECAST AT MID WEEK.
4) ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH A MEAN LONG WAVE TROF
OVER THE EASTER CONUS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO ROTATE SOUTHEAST THRU THE
REGION WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A VERY COLD AIR MASS, WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE TEENS AND 20S FALLING INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.
HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN NBM, BLENDING IN A
CONSALL.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, GENERALLY FROM
6AM TO 3PM BEFORE GRADUALLY RELAXING SOME INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
WESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH. A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 40
MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH WHERE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY THRESHOLDS (-10
DEGREE WIND CHILL) WILL BE MET THAT AN ADVISORY WAS CONTINUED STARTING
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
WHERE THRESHOLDS ARE -5 DEGREES - CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH THAT WE
WILL MEET OR EXCEED THIS THRESHOLD. THEREFORE, HAVE ISSUED A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM TUESDAY MORNING.
TO LEARN ABOUT THE WARNING SIGNS OF HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE AS
WELL AS HOW TO PROTECT YOUR LIVESTOCK AND PETS, VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SAFETY/COLD.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE LATE TUESDAY MORNING, LIKELY ENDING THE PERIOD
OF DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF ILN/S FA WILL
DIMINISH PRIOR TO SUNRISE LEAVING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW.
ADDITIONAL SNOW, SCATTERED IN COVERAGE, IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AS THE COLD
AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. SNOW RATIOS ARE VERY HIGH (18-20:1) SO
EVEN LIGHT QPF WILL PRODUCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH. COLD
TEMPERATURES, AND LACK OF SOLAR INSOLATION, SUPPORT ACCUMULATION ON
AREA ROADWAYS SO AN SPS WILL COVER THIS POTENTIAL FOR SLICK SPOTS
DURING THIS MORNINGS COMMUTE.
STRONGER WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SURGE OF COLDER AIR. MUCH OF THE
AREA DOES NOT HAVE MUCH SNOW ON THE GROUND, BUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL OHIO THERE IS AT LEAST AN INCH OR SO. WITH THE SNOW
DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW THROUGHOUT THE REST
OF THE MORNING, BLOWING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE MORE RURAL, WIND
EXPOSED AREAS. THIS WOULD LIKELY LAST THE ENTIRE DAY UNTIL WINDS
RELAX LATER IN THE EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
AS WE LOOK FURTHER OUT INTO THE WORKING WEEK, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT WE WILL HAVE A REPRIEVE FROM THE COLD TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
FEATURE HERALDS IN WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A PLUME OF HIGHER THETA-E
VALUES THROUGH THE REGION. WEDNESDAY'S TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S. A 60+ KT LLJ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION,
RESULTING IN GUSTY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM HAS LIMITED MOISTURE, THOUGH THE BLEND STILL PULLS SOME
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE-
GIVEN MARGINAL SURFACE THERMAL PROFILES, BIT TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE
P-TYPE AT THIS JUNCTION. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE PULLED THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY COLD CONDITIONS
FOR THE END OF THE WORKING WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGH PROBABILITIES OF VERY COLD AMBIENT
AIR TEMPERATURES IN PLACE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DETAILS VARIOUS
SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS ARE STILL MUDDLED AT THIS POINT IN TIME, SO HAVE
GONE WITH THE BLEND REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER, THERE
DOES SEEM TO BE A CONSENSUS THAT A BROAD REGION OF CANADIAN SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND, LENDING MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER BOUT OF WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING OFFERING A PERIOD OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER. THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE STRONG WINDS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST AND GUST UP TO
35 KTS WITH THE FROPA.THESE STRONG WINDS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KTS INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS THIS
EVENING.
ALSO, EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP TO MVFR FOR A PERIOD. THE MVFR
CEILINGS IMPROVE TO IFR AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>062.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR OHZ063>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR INZ050-058-059.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR INZ066-073>075-080.
DISCUSSION...AR/CA
AVIATION...AR
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