954
FXUS61 KILN 191746
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1246 PM EST MON JAN 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE OVERALL MESSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. PERSISTENT
COLD LINGERS INTO TOMORROW MORNING, WITH ADDITIONAL WINTRY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE MID WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
2) ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
FORECAST AT MID WEEK.
3) ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A SYSTEM OCCURS SOUTH OF THE REGION, WITH
SOME SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER TODAY, MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES MOVED IN BEHIND IT, WITH NUMEROUS OBSERVATIONS OF -8 TO
-13 WIND CHILLS ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA, AND WESTERN/CENTRAL OHIO.
ELSEWHERE, VALUES HAVE APPROACHED ZERO, BUT THE ARCTIC AIR MASS IS
STILL SETTLING IN OVER THE AREA. LATER THIS EVENING, OVERALL WIND
SPEEDS WILL RELAX, BUT AS TEMPERATURES FALL, DANGEROUS WIND CHILL
VALUES REMAIN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ABOVE HEADLINE CRITERIA TUESDAY
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.
TO LEARN ABOUT THE WARNING SIGNS OF HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE AS
WELL AS HOW TO PROTECT YOUR LIVESTOCK AND PETS, VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SAFETY/COLD.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, A LOW PRESSURE IS PASSING TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION, WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING IN
LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET IS PRESENT. WHILE BOUNDARY MIXING BECOME MORE QUESTIONABLE
LATER IN THE DAY, A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS RANGING FROM 30 TO 40 MPH
IS PROBABLE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. MOREOVER,
AS SATURATION OCCURS DURING THE AFTERNOON, ATTENTION WILL SHIFT AWAY
FROM THE WIND GUSTS AND TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW. MOISTURE
DEPTH IS PRETTY LACKLUSTER WITH THIS SYSTEM, AVOIDING THE DGZ
ENTIRELY. IF SNOW DOES OCCUR, IT WOULD LIKELY CONSIST OF VERY
INEFFICIENT SNOWFALL RATES OR AS A DRIZZLE/RAIN WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR MELTING. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO,
THE NBM BLEND OF SNOW AT THE ONSET, MIXING WITH RAIN LATER IN THE DAY
WAS UNCHANGED.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE (1044+ HPA) BUILDS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ALONG WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE.
SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT SOME POINT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH BETTER
CHANCES INTO SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE STARTING
TO COME TO AGREEMENT AROUND THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR THE END
OF THIS WEEK. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH IS LIKELY TO BE BUILDING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THE SAME TIME, A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY FORM IN THE EXTREMELY STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH OF
THE AREA. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE COULD WORK NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
ADDITIONALLY, THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE IN THE POLEWARD EXIT REGION OF
A STRONG JET STREAK WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. HOWEVER, MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND THE STRONG HIGH MAY
SUPPRESS SNOW TO THE SOUTH. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS THE HIGHEST AXIS OF
SNOWFALL INTO KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAIN IMPACTS TO THE TAFS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE THE LINGERING GUSTY
WINDS AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES, BUT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY HAVE DECREASED ENOUGH TO
ELIMINATE THE MENTION IN THE TAF. OTHERWISE, PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>062.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR OHZ063>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR INZ050-058-059.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR INZ066-073>075-080.
DISCUSSION...CAMPBELL/MCGINNIS
AVIATION...MCGINNIS
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