202
FXUS61 KILN 201655
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1155 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE OVERALL MESSAGE THIS MORNING. PERSISTENT
COLD LINGERS INTO THIS MORNING, WITH ADDITIONAL WINTRY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT MID WEEK AND AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE SNOW AT THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A REINFORCEMENT
TO THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
2) ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
FORECAST AT MID WEEK.
3) ANOTHER ROUND OF OF VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE WEEKEND AS A SYSTEM MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
UPDATE...
FORECAST UPDATED JUST PRIOR TO 10AM TO ALLOW THE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE.
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST-SOUTHEAST THRU THE REGION TODAY.
WIND SPEEDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE
AREA, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE ABOVE HEADLINE CRITERIA BY MID MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO HIGHS THE UPPER TEENS NORTH TO THE MID 20S
SOUTH.
TO LEARN ABOUT THE WARNING SIGNS OF HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE AS
WELL AS HOW TO PROTECT YOUR LIVESTOCK AND PETS, VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SAFETY/COLD.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION,
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSING THRU ILN/S FA LATE IN THE DAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET OF 55-60 KT DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF GUSTY
WINDS RANGING FROM 30 TO 40 MPH IS PROBABLE DURING THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MOREOVER, AS SATURATION OCCURS EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP BY AFTN
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF I-71. WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. MOISTURE DEPTH IS LIMITED AND DOES NOT INVOLVE
THE DGZ. ANY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN
INCH AND MAINLY NORTH OF I-70.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A BROAD AREA OF CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS POLAR
AIRMASS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. CURRENTLY, THE COLDEST DAY OF THIS TIMEFRAME
LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. EXPECTING HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES AGAIN FALLING TO THE NEGATIVES FOR NEARLY
THE ENTIRE AREA.
IN ADDITION TO HERALDING IN THE COLD TEMPERATURES, THE ROBUST
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT
UPCOMING WEEKEND STORM. PRETTY INTERESTING SETUP HERE, WITH THE
MAJORITY OF INTERACTIONS HAPPENING AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. THE CANADIAN HIGH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WILL BE
DRIVEN BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE; THIS WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US. THIS TROUGH WILL ACT TO
ADVECT PLENTIFUL MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AREA. THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS WILL BE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A POTENT JET SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, WHICH WILL PROVIDE
PLENTY OF LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. THE BIG QUESTION FOR OUR AREA
REMAINS TO BE HOW FAR NORTH THIS MOISTURE CAN BE TRANSPORTED INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY/ HOW SUPPRESSING THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE.
WITH THAT BEING SAID, IF WE DO GET PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM,
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN P-TYPE BEING ALL SNOW, GIVEN OUR LOCATION ON THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COMBINED WITH THE ARCTIC
AIR MASS WE'LL HAVE IN PLACE. STILL TOO EARLY TO ADD ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL INTO THE HWO WITH ANY SORT OF CONFIDENCE, GIVEN THAT SUBTLE
SHIFTS IN TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, STRENGTH OF THE HIGH, AND TIMING
DIFFERENCES WILL STILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT. HOWEVER, THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MAY OCCUR SOMETIME BETWEEN
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR NORTHERN KY/SOUTHERN OH
COUNTIES.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WSW WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS, THOUGH UP TO 15 KNOTS AT TIMES.
OVERNIGHT, LLWS WILL ENTER THE FORECAST FOR ALL TAF SITES. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR.
TOMORROW, WINDS OUT OF THE SSW WILL STRENGTHEN, WITH GUSTS OF 20-25
KNOTS LIKELY, AND POSSIBLY UP TO 30 KNOTS. BY MID TO LATE MORNING,
SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES, BUT COVERAGE AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE SNOW IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. THIS WILL BE HANDLED BY
A PROB30 FOR NOW, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED. IT IS ALSO
POSSIBLE THAT INSTEAD OF SNOW, SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD OCCUR INSTEAD.
REGARDLESS, CEILING ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR BY AROUND 18Z.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY, AND IF SNOW OCCURS, IFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE LIKELY.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA/HATZOS/AR
AVIATION...HATZOS
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