405
FXUS61 KILN 210724
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
224 AM EST WED JAN 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLIGHT INCREASE TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY. INCREASED CONFIDENCE
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL - ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-71 SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
INTO THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY.
2) VERY COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH SNOW POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OFF THE EAST COAST AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY THIS MORNING THRU
THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. THERE WILL BE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN RETREATING SURFACE HIGH AND THE WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING AND
STRENGTHENS TO 55-60 KTS. IN WARM ADVECTION FLOW, WIND GUSTS OF
25-30 KNOTS APPEAR LIKELY, WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.
MOISTURE IS INITIALLY LACKING BUT FORCING LEADS TO SATURATION AND
PRECIPITATION. MUCH OF THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW, BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN TO MIX IN
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA, MAINLY THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS THE MODEL SOLUTIONS,
SUGGESTING SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN
INCH. THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE IS LIMITED, AND DOES NOT COINCIDE
WITH THE DGZ FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A STRONG
(1050) CANADIAN HIGH WILL SINK DOWN INTO CONUS BRINGING A POTENT
POLAR AIRMASS TO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL, WITH AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
FOR SEVERAL DAYS STRAIGHT. THE COLDEST DAY OF THE TIMEFRAME IS
FORECAST TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. EXACT NUMBERS MAY STILL
CHANGE, BUT BLENDED GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT PAINTING
WIND CHILLS IN THE NEGATIVES ACROSS THE CWA DURING THAT OVERNIGHT
FRAME.
IN ADDITION TO THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS COMING WEEKEND, A
VERY ROBUST WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US
WITH THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AS FAR NORTH AS
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN OHIO. A TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL BEGIN
TO ADVECT PLENTIFUL MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION. MEANWHILE, CLOSER TO HOME, WE'LL BE UNDER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A POTENT JET SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
PROVIDING PLENTY OF LIFT.
CONFIDENCE IS SLOWLY INCREASING THAT WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN OUR NORTHERN KENTUCKY/ SOUTHERN OHIO
COUNTIES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WE DO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT P-
TYPE WILL BE SNOW, GIVEN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. HOWEVER, IT IS
STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO BE LOOKING AT ACCUMULATION AND CAUTION SHOULD
BE EXERCISED WITH ANY SNOWFALL MAPS POSTED THIS EARLY OUT. FOR
EXAMPLE, IN THE LAST 24 HOURS, THE BLENDED GUIDANCE HAS PAINTED
ANYWHERE FROM 1-3 INCHES TO 8-11 INCHES OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
BETWEEN RUNS. WILD SWINGS LIKE THIS OVER SHORT PERIODS OF TIME
INDICATE HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND UNPREDICTABILITY. THINKING REMAINS
THE SAME IN THAT THE BIG QUESTIONS STILL TO BE ANSWERED ARE HOW MUCH
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH CAN BE TRANSPORTED NORTH INTO OUR AREA,
OVERALL STORM TRACK, AND TIMING/ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. THEN OF
COURSE, ONCE WE NAIL DOWN THESE DETAILS A BIT MORE, WE WILL BEGIN TO
LOOK CLOSER AT SLRS, SNOWFALL RATES, DEPTH OF THE DGZ AND MORE. MUCH
STILL TO BE DETERMINED.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES, THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A SIGNAL FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES, WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW AVERAGE FORECAST FOR THE COMING WORKING WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW
TRACKING THRU THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE AND CONTINUE TO LATE MORNING
WHEN BETTER MIXING DEVELOPS.
CLOUDS INCREASE AND LOWER TO A VFR DECK BETWEEN 4000 AND 6000 FT
LATE TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS THIS MOISTURE AND WEAK
LIFT DEVELOPS WITH MVFR CEILINGS AFTER SUNRISE. HAVE A MENTION OF
PROB30 FOR THIS CHANCE.
MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
A PERIOD OF IFR AFTER 18Z. THE BETTER THREAT FOR IFR CONDITIONS LOOKS
TO OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN TAF SITES. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OUTLOOK...SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS IS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY, WITH THE GREATEST THREAT ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-71.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AR/CA
AVIATION...AR
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